| dc.description.abstract | This case study uses branch B of Bank A data on 134 SMEs that applied for relief loans between 2020 and 2023. The analysis employs binary choice and multiple logistic
regression models to investigate the relationship between 19 potential factors and loan default and delinquency (i.e., delayed repayment). These factors are classified into two
categories: loan features and the characteristics of the enterprises and their owners. The aim of this study is to provide valuable suggestions for bank credit officers to observe related patterns when reviewing relief credit cases, and thus aiding in future credit risk control.
The empirical results of this study are as follows:
1. Loan Features: Significant factors affecting loan default include whether the enterprise applied for the Central Bank′s Scheme A or B loans, the grace period, total loan amount, and loan term. Where enterprises applying for Scheme A or B are less likely to default; in contrast, a longer grace period, larger loan amount, and longer loan term are positively related to loan default.
2. Enterprise and Business Owner Characteristics: Significant factors include the number of banks from which the enterprise has borrowed, number of employees, they are in wholesale and retail industry, and whether the owner is married. In details, a higher number of borrowing banks is associated with a higher likelihood of default, while a greater number of employees, operating in wholesale or retail industry, and having a married business owner are associated with a lower likelihood of default.
Further analysis on delayed repayment or bankruptcy indicates the following. First, for loan features, enterprises applying for Scheme A or B are less likely to experience delayed repayment. Conversely, borrowing larger loan amounts and longer loan terms increase the likelihood of delayed repayment for enterprises. Secondly, there is no
significant relationship between enterprise and business owner characteristics and delayed repayment. Lastly, neither loan features nor enterprise and owner characteristics significantly affect the possibility that firms go bankrupt.
In conclusion, this study not only focuses on the analysis of factors affecting relief loan default but also extends to the impact on delayed repayment. The findings reveal
that within loan features, the application for Scheme A or B, loan amount, and loan term significantly influence both loan default and delayed repayment. | en_US |