| dc.description.abstract | Iron ore, as one of the world′s major industrial raw materials, significantly impacts the economy due to its market volatility. This study explores the correlation between iron ore futures returns and sentiment indicators, particularly whether the sentiment indicators of metals such as copper, silver, gold, and platinum can predict iron ore futures prices. Using data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 2019 to 2023, this study analyzes the impact of different metal sentiment indicators on iron ore futures returns before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that copper′s sentiment indicator can significantly predict iron ore futures prices, while silver, gold, and platinum indicators do not. Regression analysis reveals that high sentiment indicators outperform low ones in investment performance, especially for copper. Further analysis confirms that copper′s sentiment indicator significantly improves the model′s explanatory power. This study highlights that using institutional investors′ sentiment indicators in investment strategies can yield significant returns in the futures market, with copper′s sentiment indicator proving particularly effective. The research includes data screening and statistical analysis using the weekly sentiment index from Consensus Ins. In summary, this study fills a research gap, confirming copper′s sentiment indicator as a significant predictor of iron ore futures prices and emphasizing the value of sentiment indicators in investment strategies. However, it also notes the need for more data and a longer research period to verify these results and enhance prediction reliability. | en_US |