| dc.description.abstract | This paper emphases on the methodology of drought management. In the case of Jia-nan District, when the reservoir storage is lower than usual, reservoir operation rule curves are applied. In this study we focus on two elements in water resources system, one is upstream reservoir storage, and the other is downstream rainfall. This research considers that upstream reservoir storage primary supply downstream uses, including civil, agricultural, industrial, and public use. It is assumed that we have known the inflows and the storage during the periods from the fifteenth to the twenty-fifth period. The reservoir inflows and the storage of the twenty-fifth period is used to determine whether we need to limit water use. The theory of Regionalized Variables and Monte Carlo simulation was employed to calculate the probability of water lack and crops survival rate. The result shows that because the rainfall of second plow season is more than that of the first plow season, the probability of water lack during the second plow season is higher than that of first plow season. In conclusion, one should supply the first plow season sufficient irrigation water to raise the survival rate of crops. We reduce the irrigation water during second period plow and the stored water can supply for the first period plow next year. | en_US |