DC 欄位 |
值 |
語言 |
DC.contributor | 統計研究所 | zh_TW |
DC.creator | 劉雯琪 | zh_TW |
DC.creator | Wen-Chi Liu | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2003-1-15T07:39:07Z | |
dc.date.available | 2003-1-15T07:39:07Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2003 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw:444/thesis/view_etd.asp?URN=89225009 | |
dc.contributor.department | 統計研究所 | zh_TW |
DC.description | 國立中央大學 | zh_TW |
DC.description | National Central University | en_US |
dc.description.abstract | 本文根據Reasenberg和Jones(1989)提出的時間-規模頻率模型(RJ模型),當作點過程中的條件強度函數(conditional intensity function),並利用台灣過去(集集主震發生之前)十筆餘震序列當作早期地震資料,決定模型參數之先驗分配(prior distribution),然後針對集集餘震序列,使用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅(Markov Chain Monte Carlo)方法衍生近似的聯合後驗分配,進行經驗貝氏分析(empirical bayes analysis),藉以評估集集餘震時間風險。最後,利用空間格點(spatial-grid)法,在每一個距離20公里的格點上,利用此一經驗貝氏分析計算對應的餘震發生機率,藉以探討集集餘震的時空風險。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | In point process,we use RJ model as conditional intensity function,and use bayes analysis method to evaluate the time-space risk of chi-chi aftershocks. | en_US |
DC.subject | RJ模型 | zh_TW |
DC.subject | RJ model | en_US |
DC.subject | aftershock sequence | en_US |
DC.title | 餘震序列RJ模型之貝氏分析 | zh_TW |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | zh-TW |
DC.title | Bayes analysis of RJ model in aftershock sequence | en_US |
DC.type | 博碩士論文 | zh_TW |
DC.type | thesis | en_US |
DC.publisher | National Central University | en_US |