| dc.description.abstract | According to the definitions of United Nation, any nation’s over 65 year senior reaching 7% is defined as the aged society. Taiwan has reached this level in 1993. Thus, the ratios of the aged people reach to 14% that can be totally called the aged countries. (This sentence is not clear) --- the figure is over 14%. Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) predicts senior people in Taiwan will be rose by 14% in 2018. However, senior in Taiwan will reach to 20% in 2026 and by that time Taiwan can be called super elder society. According to CEPD estimation from 2004 to 2051 predicted data of middle and long-term Taiwan’s population, Taiwan’s aged population with Japan’s makes no difference, but higher than those of western countries. Facing the coming trend, what kind of population policy does the government has to enact and how does Taiwan government deal with the impact of the coming aged society on government financial crisis? This is the main theme of this thesis.
The research adopts estimated population from the study of CEPD as the independent variables (X)，and the influences on government financial income and expenses as dependent variables (Y)，including income tax (Y1), educational expenses (Y2), health expenses (Y3) and retirement pension expenses (Y4)。This study collects historical government financial data from various sources, especially adopts previous statistics of population, financial and budget from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics。 Based on the historical model and corresponding population-government finance research model, this study calculates government financial income and expenditures from now until 2051.
The result of the study has shown the importance of two features. The first is that from the financial revenue, before 2021, tax income is quite stable. The major reason is that the total numbers of working people who are aged 30 to 59 as compared to 2004”s is roughly the same. However, after 2021, low birth rate from 1993 has caused the fewer taxpayers. Therefore, the income tax will be relatively decreasing over time after 2021. Concerning financial expenses, the three items that affect the change of population proportion include educational, health and retirement pension expenses. The finding is that the labor population in 2015 will pay more NT15, 675 dollars of income tax than in 2004. Thus, children will have more burdens in the future.
The suggestion is that the government should consider the population proportion before setting up public policies to avoid shifting financial deficit to our generation. Because of the decreasing labor population, the government can take measures in advance by avoiding waste, encouraging savings and distributing the limited resources more carefully。 | en_US |