| dc.description.abstract | Taiwan is located on the boundary between Eurasia Plate and Philippines Sea Plate and earthquakes occur frequently. There are many youthful faults on the western Taiwan and it is dangerous to live in urban areas on these regions. For this reason earthquake study is important to Taiwan. Though earthquake forecast isn’t success completely today, we still need to estimate the earthquake potential and prevent disasters first. In this study, we separated the earthquake source into regional and fault sources, and calculated the potential earthquake probabilities in next 10 to 50 years respectively. For regional source, we analyzed the 13 regions, which used by Taiwan Power Company for Nuclear Power Plant’s seismic safety evaluation. The earthquake catalog cut out the fore- and after-shocks, and count the time interval between earthquakes. For the three distributions of Log-normal, Weibull, and Gamma distribution, we found that Log-normal distribution fit seismic data better in the most regions. Therefore we set up the earthquake probability models by Log-normal distribution, and calculate the probabilities for the potential earthquake of each region. The results shows that the s003, s006, s008, s009 regions have higher earthquake potential, and the s001, s004, s012 regions are on the contrary. It also signifies that it’s much dangerous in the boundary zones. For fault source, we refer to the active fault parameters investigated by the Central Geological Survey, MOEA, set up the characteristic earthquake probability model, and calculated the probabilities for the potential earthquake of each fault. The results shows that Milun Fault, Sinhwa Fault, Tachienshan Fault and Chukou Fault system, Meishan Fault have higher earthquake potential. And Milun Fault has the highest earthquake potential. In this study, we calculated the probabilities of regional and fault sources using earthquake data and fault parameters. It can provide as a reference. The earthquake data will increase with time and the fault parameters will renew in the future, then we need to estimate the earthquake probabilities afresh, to obtain much reliable results. | en_US |