dc.description.abstract | Taiwan is located in the circum-Pacific seismic belt and the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea plate at the junction of the earthquake area quite frequently, in recent years connecting to face the invasion of several strong earthquakes, such as the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Nantou 921, 2002 331 earthquake off the coast of Hualien and May 1, 2004 Hualien earthquake, particularly the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, causing damage to tangible and intangible losses, causing a high degree of government agencies and the community, and close attention.
Many experts and scholars long-term ongoing study of earthquake hazards, such as catastrophe risk assessment software RiskTracer and Taiwan earthquake damage assessment system TELES. Analysis system used in this study is RiskTrace, this evaluation system is composed of a number of disasters database and analysis system, the system can be divided into four modules, each module is speculated that the incident, hazard analysis module, damage analysis module, and financial analysis module.
In addition to buildings caused by earthquake damage and property losses, for the population of casualties can not be neglected, the previous analysis of the casualties on the use of non-household population mobility analysis, such a static-free mobility of the population, will not be able to see changes in population mobility, and earthquakes are all not a single point in time, at different time points of the seismic event, it should be on the point in time the population distribution, so that it can analyze the results more realistic. The casualties in this study population analysis module building purposes, is hoping to improve the assessment of the existing system, so that results can be more improved.
Study considered the characteristics of population movements, using discrete time definition of the rate and the dynamic population estimates, estimates of the population and then further divided according to their rate of distribution within the configuration structure, followed by analysis of damage to the building to understand the different degrees of damage the incidence of damage to the final consideration for the different buildings of different injuries occur, build a casualty analysis module. This paper will use the recent casualties of the 921 Chi-Chi earthquake simulation, to confirm that the module can effectively achieve the casualty assessment, and finally, loss of simulated earthquakes in Taiwan, to go beyond the casualties of the curve showing the probability to apply to a variety of insurance / reinsurance emerging alternative risk transfer product design and pricing tools.
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