| dc.description.abstract | Taiwan is located on the boundary between Eurasia Plate and Philippines Sea
Plate and earthquakes occur frequently. Many disasters and casualties caused by
the earthquake, like Chi-Chi earthquake, in September 21, 1999. For this reason,
studying in earthquake is important to Taiwan. Though earthquake forecast hasnʼt
developed completely today, we still need to estimate the potential of earthquake
and prevent disasters first.
! The purpose of this study is to use the earthquake catalog of the Central
Weather Bureau. Assuming the occurrence of earthquakes follows by the Poisson
process, and removing aftershocks of the earthquake catalog. Through statistical
analysis to obtain the seismic parameters, to build earthquake probability models as
assessing the earthquake in the future in Taiwan based on probability.The major
concept is that for the statistical analysis in some particular area, we build the
probability midel in each area by mean of earthquake space time, taking elapse time
of the earthquake into consideration and calculating the probabilities of earthquakes
in 10 to 50 years. For the grid in which micro Region was the source area of the
region instead of b value and potential use of regional earthquake source probability
assessment method to calculate the incidence of potential earthquakes in next
10,20,50 years.
! In this study, the b value of the micro grid still use the result of regional
epicenter. In the future, if there is more complete grid of the micro zone earthquake
catalog, you can use the micro area network cells within the scope of the earthquake
catalog search computed b values, which plays a more than able to meet the high
reliability of the grid and the potential of earthquake probabilities. As time passes in
future, after increasing the seismic record, the result of re-calculation of potential
earthquake probability will be more reliable.
| en_US |