結合本體論與網路分析程序法於軟體專案風險之辨識與評估

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簡嘉成(Chia-Chen Chien) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

資訊管理學系

論文名稱

結合本體論與網路分析程序法於軟體專案風險之辨識與評估
(Integrate Ontology and Analytic Network Process for Software Project Risks Identification and Assessment)

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摘要(中)

軟體專案開發過程中會面臨許多不確定性因素與風險，而風險若能被有效地被掌握與處理，不僅可以避免預算超支及時程延宕等風險，其經驗與知識亦可提供組織進一步分享及重用。然而，風險辨識為一知識密集的活動，在實務上必須仰賴專案人員的經驗來辨識風險，而組織若能保存與重用過往的經驗與知識，將提升專案的績效與知識再利用。端此，本研究嘗試建立一個以本體論為基礎之系統，塑模組織的經驗及知識以協助專案相關人員辨識風險項目，進而辨識風險與其交互影響關係，再透過網路分析程序法的評估，以量化風險之間的交互影響程度，協助專案團隊辨識風險之間複雜的交互關係。此外，當專案進行的過程中，可能因為專案結構或是外部環境的改變，專案經理需要考慮到專案屬性的變化，例如團隊流動率。為了解決該問題本研究系統也將提供專案成員更新專案屬性再次辨識專案風險，以完整掌握專案風險的脈絡。

摘要(英)

During the entire software cycle, software development processes faced many risks and uncertainties. If these risks can be controlled and eliminated effectively, it
could help projects to avoid running out of budget and to prevent project schedule delay. The knowledge and experience about control risks could help organizations manage risk in the future. However, risk identification is a knowledge-intensive task which is relies on member′s experience. If organization preserve and reuse the prior experience, it could improve project performance and knowledge reusability. In this regard, this research attempted to create the ontology-based system, which models the experience and knowledge of organization, to support project member to identify risks and risk
interactions. After that, the system evaluates the interaction degree of each risk factor by Analytic Network Process method. Therefore, projects are facing a growing complexity, in both of project structure and external environment. Project manager needs to consider the changing of parameters number, e.g., team member turnover. To solve this problem, this system provides an additional function for team member to update the project attribute. After updating the attributes, system would identify the project risks again, so that project team could handle the whole risk contextual.

關鍵字(中)

★ 軟體開發專案
★ 風險辨識
★ 風險評估
★ 本體論
★ 網路分析程序法

關鍵字(英)

★ Software development project
★ Risk identification
★ Risk assessment
★ Ontology
★ Analytic Network Process

論文目次

摘要.............................................. i
Abstract ........................................ ii
目錄 ............................................. iii
圖目錄 ............................................ v
表目錄 ............................................ vi
第一章緒論......................................... 1
1.1. 研究背景與動機.................................. 1
1.2. 研究目標 ...................................... 3
1.3. 研究範圍與假設................................. 4
1.4. 研究架構 ...................................... 5
第二章文獻探討 ..................................... 7
2.1. 軟體專案風險管理................................ 7
2.1.1. 風險管理 ..................................... 7
2.1.2. 軟體風險因子................................... 9
2.2. 風險辨識及評估方法.............................. 16
2.3. 本體論 ........................................ 18
2.4. 網路分析程序法.................................. 20
第三章系統模型與設計................................. 26
3.1. 系統架構與回饋機制............................... 26
3.2. 風險因子設計與建立本體 ........................... 27
3.3. 規則設計 ....................................... 41
3.4. 網路分析程序法之計算模型......................... 45
第四章系統與案例展示 ................................ 53
4.1. 個案描述 ....................................... 54
4.2. 知識擷取與建立.................................. 56
4.3. 功能展示 ....................................... 59
第五章系統驗證 ..................................... 67
5.1. 系統預測品質分析................................. 67
5.1.1. 型一型二誤差驗證 .............................. 67
5.2. 使用者驗證 ..................................... 69
5.2.1. 使用者訪談 .................................... 69
5.2.2. 訪談結果 .................................... 71
第六章結論 ....................................... 78
6.1. 研究結論 ....................................... 78
6.2. 研究限制與未來展望............................... 79
參考文獻 ........................................... 80

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指導教授

陳仲儼(Chung-Yang Chen)

審核日期

2016-8-17

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