漸進式全球暖化下聖嬰的特徵與海氣回饋機制的變化

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沈敏樺(Min-Hua Shen) 查詢紙本館藏

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大氣科學學系

論文名稱

漸進式全球暖化下聖嬰的特徵與海氣回饋機制的變化
(Changes in El Niño characteristics and air-sea feedback mechanisms under progressive global warming)

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至系統瀏覽論文 (2026-8-31以後開放)

摘要(中)

在全球暖化影響下，聖嬰/南方震盪現象El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)所驅動的極端天氣變化是氣候變遷裡的一個重要議題。本研究利用CMIP6 1pctCO2 漸進式暖化情境模擬資料去探討全球暖化將會如何改變聖嬰的特徵，包含聖嬰強度、發生頻率和東太平洋(EP El Niño)與中太平洋聖嬰(EP El Niño)發生比例變化。我們也探討了影響聖嬰現象的主要幾個回饋機制的變化與其所伴隨的大氣回饋。
　　CMIP6模式的系集平均結果顯示，在暖化情境下聖嬰的強度增加了約2.03%，而發生的頻率增加了約4.08%。我們進一步發現CP El Niño事件和EP El Niño事件對全球暖化表現出不同的反應。特別是在全球暖化情境下，CP El Niño事件往往會加劇且發生頻率較高，而EP El Niño事件則會減弱且發生頻率較低；此結果導致El Niño的強度和頻率僅發生輕微變化。
　　我們的研究也顯示了CMIP6從前70年到後70 年期間CP/EP El Niño比值的變化。從各種CMIP6模型中EP和CP El Niño事件的多樣性顯示，該系統預計第一個和第二個70年期間CP/EP比率可能增加約10% (從1.53到1.68)，這項發現與全球暖化下SF(seasonal footprinting)模態的影響增加非常一致。

摘要(英)

Under the influence of global warming, projecting changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven weather extremes under global warming is an important topic of climate change. In this study, we utilize the CMIP6 1pctCO2 scenarios to investigate how global warming may impact El Niño characteristics, specifically potential changes in the frequency, intensity, and CP/EP El Niño ratio. And also investigate the changes in the main air-sea feedback mechanisms (BF and SF) of ENSO and the corresponding atmospheric responses.
The CMIP6 results indicate significant discrepancies exist in projecting changes in El Niño intensity between the first and second 70-year periods. There appears to be an overall increase in El Niño intensity of about 2.03% in CMIP6. Based on the frequency change results. The ensemble mean suggests that the frequency of El Niño events may increase by approximately 4.06% under global warming. We further find that the CP and EP El Niño events exhibit distinct responses to global warming. In particular, CP El Niño events tend to intensify and occur more frequently, while EP El Niño events weaken and become less frequent in a warmer atmospheric environment. The contrasting reactions result in a slight alteration in the intensity and occurrence of El Niño.
Our study also shows the ensemble mean of CP/EP El Niño ratios from the first 70-year period to the last 70-year period in CMIP6. The diversity in the representation of EP and CP El Niño events across various CMIP6 models indicates that the ensemble projects a potential 10% increase in the CP/EP ratio (from 1.53 to 1.68) between the first and second 70-year periods. This finding is quite consistent with the increased influence of the SF mode under global warming.

關鍵字(中)

★ 聖嬰事件
★ 全球暖化

關鍵字(英)

★ El Niño
★ Global warming

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
Contents iii
List of Figures v
List of Tables ix
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Data and Methodology 9
2.1 Data Sources 9
2.2 Selection and classification of El Niño event 12
2.3 Air-sea feedback mechanisms 14
Chapter 3 Model performance 17
3.1 El Niño SSTA 18
3.2 CRE at Surface 20
Chapter 4 The change of El Niño under Progressive Global Warming 26
4.1 The characteristics of El Niño 26
4.2 The feedback mechanisms 30
Chapter 5 The Change in Super El Niño 40
Chapter 6 Summary and Future work 50
6.1 Summary 50
6.2 Future work 54
References 57
Appendix A: Three Primary Feedback Processes 68
Appendix B: The Mix-type El Niño 70
Appendix C: Changes in El Niño characteristics and air–sea feedback mechanisms under progressive global warming 82

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指導教授

余嘉裕(Jia-Yuh Yu)

審核日期

2024-7-19

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