| 摘要(英) |
The International Energy Organization Berkeley Lab has developed a PAMS model to assist developing countries in estimating the saturation of home appliances in their own countries and assist the government in formulating relevant energy-saving policies. In view of the fact that Taiwan′s power consumption in summer has continued to rise in recent years, from 69.5 billion degrees in 2015 to 72.4 billion degrees in 2017. I used the survey data of income and expenditure of the household from 2001 to
2018 on my study to establish a model for estimating the ownership and number of air-conditioners in order to make the government expect energy-saving policies in the
future easily.
According to the empirical results of the probit model, household head’s income,residential area, and tenure of dwelling are important variables for the forecasting
model while in ordered probit model, number of household persons, household head’s income, residential area, and tenure of dwelling are important variables. Then, find out structural changes of important variables through Zou test and predict the future parameters by multiple regression model.
Finally, estimated results of this study using the parameters changing with time would be compared to the results of using fixed parameter like PAMS model and
analyze the difference between the results of these two methods. |
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