職業籃球的致勝關鍵因素-以NBA為例

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周迺鈺(Nai-Yu Chou) 查詢紙本館藏

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企業管理學系

論文名稱

職業籃球的致勝關鍵因素-以NBA為例

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摘要(中)

近年，運動博奕事業盛行，高風險高報酬成為多數人的獲利方式，尤其是 NBA 聯盟的觀眾人數擴及全球、事業版圖跨越國界，對全世界運動有深深的影響，因此成為賭徒的主要目標。除此之外，也有許多研究者試圖預測結果和勝隊，因此有許多詳細比賽數據在網路上公開取用。而本篇論文為瞭解 NBA 主場球隊隊比賽內容並找尋規則，以 NBA 2012~2018 六年、30 隊的每場比賽詳細數據做分析，並以兩種演算法:決策樹 ( Decision Tree )，找到主場球隊比賽的勝場和敗場規則，並以隨機森林 (RandomForest)驗證能夠影響主場球隊勝場的變數之重要程度。以此預測比賽勝負並觀察勝負隊的贏球模式和輸球原因，從中找出贏球方程式，能在職業球隊選秀、比賽戰術運用、球員交易等不同面向，或者在一般觀賞或者運動彩券等不同領域有所應用。

摘要(英)

In the recent year, sport betting industry is more popular nowadays, and the way of high risk with high return become a main way investment for more and more people. Especially NBA, it is the main target for professional gambler because it attracts audience from all the world and its business territory has been all over the world. So, there are uncountable researchers trying to analyze and predict the winning team for personal or business. Moreover, there are a lot of data of detailed contents of games on websites for people to research and analyze. And, the dataset in this paper is from www.kaggle.com.tw. In this paper, I collect data of NBA 30-team-games from 2012 to 2018, analyzing by 2 algorithms. As the result, I found out the rule of winning of home team by decision tree and test the level of importance by random forest, trying to figure out the formula of winning and the reason of losing, also, predicting the result of games. In sum, the result of research could be used in a variety of fields, like draft, games tactics, players trading, watching games, and betting.

關鍵字(中)

★ NBA
★ 比賽預測
★ 決策樹
★ 隨機森林

關鍵字(英)

★ NBA
★ Game Prediction
★ Decision Tree
★ Ramdom Forest

論文目次

中文摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
目錄 III
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VI
壹、緒論 1
一、研究動機 1
二、研究目的 2
三、研究流程 2
貳、文獻回顧探討 4
一、研究內容簡介 4
二、數據於球賽應用之探討 4
參、研究方法 6
一、原始資料 6
二、資料清理 6
（一）扣除和比賽無相關數據 6
（二）扣除得分相關數據 6
（三）扣除公式統計數據 8
（四）以主場對戰客場為分析單位 9
（五）對戰數據前後相減 9
三、資料探勘 10
（一）決策樹 10
（二）隨機森林 10
（三）以混淆矩陣、指標檢測模型 10
肆、研究結果分析 11
一、決策樹結果 11
二、混淆矩陣-決策樹 13
三、模型檢測－決策樹 14
四、實際比賽紀錄和建議 15
五、隨機森林結果 18
（一）分析結果 18
（二）混淆矩陣－隨機森林 20
（三）隨機森林模型檢測 21
伍、研究限制與結論 22
一、研究限制 22
二、研究結果 23
參考文獻 25

參考文獻

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[14] Papadaki, I., & Tsagris, M. (2020). Are NBA Players Getting Paid According To Their Performance on Court?. arXiv preprint arXiv:2007.14694.
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指導教授

陳炫碩(Ken Chen)

審核日期

2021-7-29

推文