| 摘要(英) |
In the past, the literature did not make a detailed distinction of crisis companies when conducting crisis predictions. Therefore, the results obtained have certain deviations. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to distinguish the types of crisis companies and their applicable variables. The selection of variables is divided into two types, Financial key Area and the Z1~Z5 model established by Altman. The sample of this research is taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal and Securities Investor and Futures Trader Protection Center.After deleting special industries, counters, and public offering companies, there are a total of 185 samples. The research results show that crisis companies are divided into three types, namely, fraud first and then crisis, first crisis and then fraud, and pure crisis company. Among them, the first crisis and then fraud companies are less representative due to the small number of samples. The type of fraud first company and the pure crisis company confirm that there are indeed differences. The trend of the first fraud company is difficult to find signs of financial deterioration before T-1 year, but in T-1 year, the first fraud company′s financial situation has declined significantly, and the degree of deterioration will exceed crisis company. Crisis companies showed a state of continuous deterioration before the crisis, and as the crisis year approaches, the degree of deterioration will become more pronounced. Therefore, if they are not distinguished, the results of crisis prediction are likely to be distorted, and the longer the prediction period, the higher the possibility of distortion. |
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