中國與美國實質衝擊對台灣及亞洲國家的外溢效應

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林育如(Yu-Ju Lin) 查詢紙本館藏

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經濟學系

論文名稱

中國與美國實質衝擊對台灣及亞洲國家的外溢效應

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至系統瀏覽論文 (2025-7-31以後開放)

摘要(中)

本研究旨在探討中國和美國實質產出及實質股價負衝擊，對台灣和其他重要貿易國家經濟產生的外溢效應。我們運用全球向量自迴歸模型分析這些衝擊對台灣經濟的影響，並透過衝擊反應函數瞭解台灣及其亞洲貿易夥伴的經濟狀況。根據實證結果，我們發現在實質產出方面，各國對來自美國實質產出負衝擊的反應程度普遍超過來自中國的衝擊，顯示美國對亞洲國家的影響力較大，這可能與中國和其他亞洲國家之間存在經濟競爭有關。然而，台灣對中國實質產出負衝擊的反應程度超過來自美國的衝擊，是研究國家中唯一的例外；在實質股價負衝擊方面，各國對來自美國負衝擊有更為明顯的負向反應，特別是中國。總體而言，美國實質股價負衝擊對各國的負向影響更為嚴重，且這種負向影響在短期至中期內甚至會逐漸加劇，但隨著時間的推移，長期平均下，負向影響將逐漸減少。這些研究結果顯示，美國不管在實質產出方面還是實質股價方面，對於大多數的亞洲國家都會有較大的影響力。

摘要(英)

This paper aims to explore the spillover effects of negative shocks to real output and real stock prices in China and the United States on Taiwan and other important trading countries′ economies. We employ the Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model to analyze the impact of these shocks on Taiwan′s economy and understand the economic conditions of Taiwan and its Asian trading partners through impulse response functions. Based on the empirical results, we find that, in terms of real output, countries generally demonstrate stronger responses to negative shocks from the United States than from China, indicating that the United States has a greater influence on Asian countries, possibly due to economic competition between China and other Asian nations. However, Taiwan stands as the sole exception among the studied countries, showing stronger responsiveness to negative shocks from China than from the United States. As for negative shocks to real stock prices, countries exhibit more pronounced negative reactions to shocks from the United States, particularly in the case of China. Overall, the negative shocks to real stock prices from the United States have a more severe impact on all countries, and this effect may even intensify in the short to medium term. However, over time, the negative impact gradually diminishes, resulting in a decreasing long-term average. These research findings highlight that the United States exerts a significant influence on most Asian countries, regardless of real output or real stock prices.

關鍵字(中)

★ 實質產出衝擊
★ 實質股價衝擊
★ 外溢效應
★ 全球向量自迴歸模型
★ 衝擊反應函數

關鍵字(英)

★ real output shock
★ real stock price shock
★ spillover effects
★ Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR)
★ impulse response function

論文目次

摘要 i
致謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 vii
第一章緒論 1
第二章文獻回顧 4
第三章研究方法 9
3-1 變量說明與資料來源 10
3-2 GVAR模型 12
3-2.1 向量自迴歸模型 13
3-2.2 帶外生變量的向量自迴歸模型 13
3-2.3 全球向量自迴歸模型 15
3-2.4 向量誤差修正模型 16
第四章研究結果與分析 18
4-1中國實質產出負衝擊 18
4-1.1 實質產出反應 18
4-1.2 實質股價反應 22
4-2美國實質產出衝擊 25
4-2.1 實質產出反應 25
4-2.2 實質股價反應 28
4-3中國實質股價負衝擊 30
4-3.1 實質股價反應 30
4-4美國實質股價衝擊 33
4-4.1 實質股價反應 33
4-5中國與美國衝擊比較 36
第五章結論 41
5-1結論 41
5-2未來展望 42
參考文獻 43
附錄 47
附錄A. 全球石油價格正衝擊 47
A-1 實質產出反應 47
A-2 通貨膨脹率反應 50
A-3 實質股價反應 53
附錄B. 敘述統計結果 55
附錄C. 單位根檢定 61
附錄D. 弱外生檢定 64
附錄E. 共整合檢定 66

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指導教授

姚睿(Ruey Yau)

審核日期

2023-7-26

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