台灣上市櫃KY公司之存活分析

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周廷耕(Ting-Keng Chou) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

經濟學系

論文名稱

台灣上市櫃KY公司之存活分析

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摘要(中)

2008 年台灣政府積極推動海外企業來台掛牌，吸引設立在海外的企業來台灣掛牌上市上櫃，隨著 2010 年代全球經濟復甦，台灣股市也越來越熱絡，第一家來台上市櫃的 KY 公司也就此誕生。累積到 2022 年止，KY 公司的家數已經來到了 128 家，其中有 22 家下市將近兩成，而近年來也有許多 KY 公司傳出負面新聞，像是 2014 年「力旺」疑似炒股、2020 年「康有」掏空案等等，讓不少人覺得 KY 股是不是一檔風險高的股票，因此本研究為探討 KY 公司是否真的比較容易下市櫃，並找出影響 KY 公司下市的危險因子。
本研究選取 2010 年至 2022 年台灣上市櫃資料，資料擷取至台灣經濟新報(TEJ)資料庫，並使用存活分析中的 Kaplan-Meier 估計與 Cox 模型來建立模型，探討台灣 KY 公司的公司特性與財務狀況影響公司的存活率，結果發現公司規模、設立年限、生產地以及研發費用對於公司下市有顯著的影響。

摘要(英)

In 2008, the Taiwan government actively promoted the listing of overseas companies in Taiwan, attracting overseas companies to list on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. In recent years, there has been a lot of negative news about KY companies, such as the suspected speculation of Li-Wang in 2014 and the short-selling case of Kang-You in 2020. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate whether KY stocks are more prone to be downgraded and to identify the risk factors that affect the downgrade of KY stocks.
The data was retrieved from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) database and modeled using Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox model in survival analysis. The results show that firm size, establishment, production location, and R&D costs have significant effects on the firm′s downmarketing.

關鍵字(中)

★ 第一上市
★ 存活分析
★ Kaplam-Meier
★ Cox 模型
★ 時間相依

關鍵字(英)

★ first list
★ survival analysis
★ Kaplam-Meier
★ Cox model
★ time dependent

論文目次

第一章緒論.................................................. 1
1.1 研究背景................................................. 1
1.2 研究動機與目的 ........................................... 8
1.3 研究架構................................................ 10
第二章文獻回顧.............................................. 12
2.1 上市櫃公司下市櫃因素的研究................................. 12
2.2 存活分析模型在經濟分析的應用............................... 16
第三章研究方法.............................................. 19
3.1 資料來源 ............................................... 19
3.2 研究變數(解釋變數)之定義 ................................. 19
3.3 實證模型 ............................................... 22
第四章實證結果與分析......................................... 29
4.1 敘述統計 ............................................... 29
4.2 Kaplan-Meier 估計實證結果................................ 31
4.3 Cox 模型實證結果......................................... 36
第五章結論與建議............................................ 39
5.1 結論 .................................................. 39
5.2 研究限制與建議 .......................................... 40
參考文獻 ................................................... 41

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指導教授

楊志海(Chih-Hai Yang)

審核日期

2023-7-14

推文