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姓名	劉鈺均(Yu-Jyun Liou)  查詢紙本館藏	畢業系所	大氣科學學系
論文名稱	發展GCE暖雨雙矩量微物理參數化方案:理想及真實個案測試
相關論文	★ McGill Algorithm for Precipitation nowcasting using Lagrangian Extrapolation(MAPLE)即時預報系統在臺灣複雜地形之可行性評估：颱風與梅雨鋒面個案分析 ★ 利用系集法估計與檢驗對流尺度之預報誤差：SoWMEX IOP8 個案分析 ★ 不同微物理方案在雲可解析模式的系集預報分析: SoWMEX-IOP8 個案 ★ 藉由數值模式水平風場改善雷達回波外延即時預報系統:16個颱風個案統計分析 ★ 分析不同微物理參數化之系集預報誤差: SoWMEX-IOP8 對流個案 ★ 利用雙偏極化雷達觀測資料進行極短期天氣預報評估─2008年西南氣流實驗IOP8期間颮線系統個案 ★ 台灣地區對流胞特性統計分析與即時路徑預報之改善 ★ 評估TAHOPE觀測實驗同化S-PolKa徑向風、回波與折射指數對短期降雨預報的影響：觀測系統模擬實驗(OSSE)之測試 ★ 利用多頻道衛星觀測評估WRF數值模式於不同微物理方案之雲特性:以梅雨鋒面降水系統個案為例 ★ 使用局地系集轉換卡爾曼濾波器同化雙偏極化參數的全新方法：夏季真實個案中的分析場與預報場 ★ 台灣地區強對流胞即時預報與冰雹預警能力之分析與改善 ★ Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event on 01-02 June 2017 over Northern Taiwan Area: Analysis of Radar Observation and Ensemble Simulations ★ WRF-LETKF系統同化反演熱動力場與雷達資料：鋒面雨帶個案之分析探討 ★ Investigating hygroscopic cloud-seeding effects in liquid-water clouds in northern Taiwan: in-situ measurements and model simulation ★ 同化雙偏極化雷達差異反射率之方法與影響評估：2021 年宜蘭降雨觀測實驗 IOP2 個案分析 ★ 利用三維回波移動場改善即時降雨預報並建構系集即時預報系統：臺灣梅雨鋒面及秋季降水個案分析
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摘要(中)	本研究目標在於將目前台灣地區常用於模擬及預報之 Goddard Cumulus Ensemble(GCE)微物理參數化方案，從原先的單矩量形式，轉變為自由度更高，且提供更多水物粒子相關資訊之雙矩量形式。此次更新完之微物理參數化方案共預報七種不同水物粒子(水氣、雲水、雨水、雲冰、雪、軟雹與冰雹)，以及兩種暖雨過程之總水物粒子濃度(雲水與雨水)。為了檢視雙矩量之 GCE 微物理參數化方案(GCEDM)在模式中的降雨預報表現，故使用 1) 2D Thunderstorm 理想化實驗、2) 3D Supercel 理想化實驗 以及 3) 暖雨過程主導之台灣降水真實個案，並主要以後兩者來與不同之微物理參數化方案進行評估與比較。 2D Thunderstorm 理想化實驗初步顯示了 GCESM 與 GCEDM 在降水能力與分布的相似與差異之處。而在 3D Supercel 理想化實驗中，GCEDM 所得到之累積降雨量相較於單矩量之 GCE 微物理參數化方案(GCESM)有所減少，但在動力、熱力及降雨率等特徵兩者依然相似。此外，當增加了總水物粒子濃度的計算後，GCEDM 在對流系統與層狀系統中，能夠像其他雙矩量微物理方案一樣，呈現出更多樣化的雨滴粒徑分布，使其更接近真實情形。另一方面，在真實個案之定量降水預報上，GCEDM 整體表現出了比 GCESM 更好的降雨預報能力，特別是在強降雨區域發生暖雨過程主導之降水時有明顯改善。原因在於透過增加雨水粒子濃度預報，微物理過程中作為主要雨水生成作用之雲雨水聚集作用有所減弱，大幅減緩了原先 GCESM 中過報的累積降雨情形。在動力方面，GCEDM 之低層輻合作用較 GCESM 有所減弱，底層水氣難以透過上升運動到達高層，故高層飽和度較低，水物粒子轉化上也相較困難，導致降雨量上的大幅減少。此預報結果顯示出 GCEDM 不只能在實際個案中提供更詳盡的水物粒子資訊，甚至可以提供相比 GCESM 更好的預報效益。
摘要(英)	This study aims to modify Goddard Cumulus Ensemble microphysics (GCE) scheme,which is the widely used microphysics scheme for simulations and forecasts around the world, from single-moment to double-moment scheme. The upgraded scheme predicts the mixingratios of seven species hydrometeors (water vapor, cloud water, rain water, cloud ice, snow,graupel and hail), and total number concentrations of hydrometeors in warm-rain processes(cloud water and rain water). To examine the performance of GCE double-moment, it was evaluated and compared to different microphysics schemes by: 1) an idealized 2D thunderstorm, 2) an idealized 3D supercell storm tests and 3) a warm-rain processes dominant real case over Taiwan. Similarities and differences of precipitation between GCESM and GCEDM examine by 2D idealized thunderstorm test. For the 3D supercell idealized test, the result of accumulated rainfall is less in GCE double-moment compared to GCE single-moment, but the features of the dynamic, thermodynamic, and rainfall rate are similar as GCE single-moment scheme. In addition, when calculating the total number concentration, GCE double-moment scheme shows the capability to present more diversity of rain droplet sizes in both convective and stratiform regions toward reality, and this is similar as other double-moment schemes. On the other hand, the performance of quantitative precipitation forecast showed that, the GCE double-moment scheme is had better forecast skill compared to the GCE single-moment, especially for the warm-rain processes dominant situation in heavy rainfall region. By appending rain number concentration forecast, accretion of cloud and rain as main rainwater source microphysics process becomes weaker. It leads to reduce overestimate of accumulated rainfall obviously. For dynamic, low level convergence in GCEDM is weaker than GCESM. Low level water vapor is hard to arrive high level by updraft. Therefore, lower saturation and more difficult to transform into hydrometeors. Finally, it makes precipitation decrease dramatically. In summary, GCEDM not only provides more detail hydrometeor particle information, but also can get better benefit of forecast.
關鍵字(中)	★ 雲微物理 ★ 參數化 ★ 雙矩量方案 ★ 定量降水預報	關鍵字(英)	★ Microphysics ★ Parameterization ★ Double-moment scheme ★ Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
論文目次	摘要 ............................................................... ..... i Abstract ........................................................... .... ii 致謝 ............................................................... .... iii 目錄 ............................................................... .... iv 圖表目錄 ........................................................... ..... v 一、緒論 ........................................................... ..... 1 1.1 前言與文獻回顧 .............................................................................................................1 1.2 研究動機 .........................................................................................................................4 二、雲微物理參數化方案介紹 ......................................... ..... 6 2.1 Goddard Cumulus Ensemble 4ICE single-moment scheme (GCESM scheme) ..............6 2.2 Goddard Cumulus Ensemble 4ICE double-moment scheme (GCEDM scheme) ............7 2.3 WRF Double-Moment 7-category (WDM7) scheme .....................................................10 三、模式架構與實驗設計 ............................................. .... 11 3.1 Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) Model 簡介.................................................11 3.2 實驗設計 .......................................................................................................................11 3.3 實際個案降雨與雷達回波檢驗方式 ............................................................................13 四、模擬結果比較 ................................................... .... 17 4.1 2D Thunderstorm 理想化實驗(2D idealized thunderstorm test)................................17 4.2 3D Supercell 理想化實驗(3D idealized supercell storm test) ....................................17 4.3 真實個案(Real case)......................................................................................................23 五、結論與未來展望 ................................................. .... 32 六、參考文獻 ....................................................... .... 35 附表 ............................................................... .... 43 附圖 ............................................................... .... 52
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指導教授	鍾高陞(Kao-Shen Chung)	審核日期	2024-7-10
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