使用四維變分資料同化系統研究 2021 年宜蘭實驗 (YESR)期間的強降水事件

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吳孟杰(Meng-Jie Wu) 查詢紙本館藏

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大氣科學學系

論文名稱

使用四維變分資料同化系統研究 2021 年宜蘭實驗 (YESR)期間的強降水事件
(A study of a heavy rainfall event during YESR2021 using a 4DVar data assimilation system)

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摘要(中)

本研究使用IBM_VDRAS分析2021年11月26日的強降雨個案，搭配宜蘭強降雨實驗觀測，可辨識降雨四階段：階段一對流沿雪山山脈發展，向東北移動；階段二對流由西南側山谷肇始，聚集於中央山脈北段迎風側；階段三，平原北側系統消散，南方降雨系統開始東移；階段四，內陸降雨亦趨緩，沿海對流維持。比對由IBM_VDRAS所模擬結果，亦與降雨觀測相符，並與剖風儀、地面測站與微型探空進行校驗，結果指出此模式具有一定程度可分析冬季強降水。
　　持續調查宜蘭冬季降水的過程，發現個案中底層東北風增強與其強風軸位置，會影響平原環流結構；中層強勁西南風使對流胞往東北方移動，並挾帶水氣跨越山脈進入平原；陡峭雪山山脈有利於垂直渦漩建立，影響對流胞發展；中央山脈北段處於迎風側，產生地形效應使氣塊抬升而成雲致雨。另外，局地高壓的出現與位置，影響了降雨分布。綜上所述，透過IBM_VDRAS的動力、熱力以及微物理過程，可以清楚的調查宜蘭冬季強降水的演變與特徵。

摘要(英)

Using IBM_VDRAS to analysis a heavy rainfall event on 26 November 2021 with the observations in YESR (Yilan Experiment Severe Rainfall), this study identified four stages of precipitation. The precipitation was located along the SMR (Snow Mountain Range) in Stage 1, began to develop in the NCMR (Northern Central Mountain Range) and expanded northeastward into the plain in Stage 2, and then as the precipitation decreased over the northern plain, the rain band began to move to the east side of the NCMR in Stage 3, and finally the systems dissipated over the interior and only coastal convection existed in Stage 4. The simulation results were validated against wind profiler, surface sites and storm tracker, demonstrating the ability to capture the features in this case.
The research also investigated the features of this case, the results showed that the increasing low-level northeasterly wind would affect the circulation over the plain, the strong mid-level southwesterly wind make convection move northeastward and carry moisture into the plain, the steep Snow Mountain Range helps to establish the vertical vortices influenced the development of cells, and the northern Central Mountain Range captures the moisture transported by prevailing wind which induces the convection due to terrain effect. In addition, the local high-pressure systems play a key role in the location of the precipitation hotspot. From the kinematic, thermodynamic and microphysical fields of IBM_VDRAS, this study can clearly describe the evolution and characteristics of the winter heavy rainfall in Yilan.

關鍵字(中)

★ 宜蘭冬季強降水實驗
★ 四維變分
★ 雷達資料同化

關鍵字(英)

★ Ylian
★ YESR
★ IBM_VDRAS
★ 4DVar
★ radar data assimilation
★ heavy precipitation

論文目次

中文摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VII
第一章、緒論 1
1-1. 宜蘭秋冬季強降水 1
1-2. 四維變分資料同化 2
1-3. 研究目標與架構 4
第二章、研究方法 5
2-1. 雲模式基本方程組 5
2-2. 微物理過程 7
2-3. 價值函數 7
2-4. 伴隨模式 8
2-5. 虛網格沉浸邊界法 9
第三章、個案與資料 11
3-1. 個案回顧 11
3-1-1. 綜觀環境配置 11
3-1-2. 降雨事件分析 12
3-1-3. 地面測站分析 12
3-2. 研究資料 13
3-2-1. 中尺度背景場 13
3-2-2. 氣象雷達資料 14
3-2-3. 剖風儀 14
3-2-4. 微型探空 15
第四章、模擬與校驗 16
4-1. 模式設定與同化策略 16
4-2. 實驗設計 16
4-3. 模擬結果校驗 17
4-4. 離散窗區 vs 連續窗區 18
4-5. 模式預報表現 19
第五章、討論與分析 20
5-1. 降雨時空間分布 20
5-2. 熱動力結構分析 21
5-3. 垂直剖面分析 22
第六章、結論與展望 25
6-1. 結論 25
6-2. 未來工作 27
參考資料 28
附表 34
附圖 36
附錄 88

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指導教授

廖宇慶(Yu-Chieng Liou)

審核日期

2024-7-16

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