| 摘要(英) |
As a result of the economic slowdown in the recent years, domestic overdue loan ratio has elevated to new highs. Many banks have begun to consider adjusting their credit rating and lending policies. This research aims to explore the revisions of credit rating assessment forms, alarming mechanisms of corporate breach, and credit policy implementations of selected commercial banks. The research period spans from 1991 to 2001, sampling six banks in northern and middle Taiwan that extended credit facilities to large and medium-sized businesses within various industries in similar regions. The financial statements and credit rating assessments of 40 breaching companies three years before the breach were compared with that of 115 normal companies. Mean average deviation analysis and Logistic regression analysis were used to test the ability of the revised credit assessment methods used by selected banks as compared to the original methods.
The result shows that, through mean average deviation analysis, both the revised and original credit assessment methods were able to distinguish between the normal and breaching companies. Superiority between the revised and original methods could not be distinguished from the scale of differences between the means and the medians. Under credit factors, revised method has a better forecasting efficiency than the original; largest differences exist between the breaching probability of the normal and breaching companies using the median test. However, structural comparisons indicated that large differences exist between both methods and the original method is superior. Revised “credit assessment form” could not distinguish the business qualities between large and medium-sized corporations. MAD analysis showed insignificant differences as the means for both lied between 52 and 53 points. Using Logit model to calculate breaching probabilities and Type I/Type II errors, the revised method showed better accuracy in distinguishing breaching probabilities. Revised method showed significant differences on “debt ratio”, “long/short term debt to equity ratio” and “sales”. It provided a more efficient alarming mechanism. |
| 參考文獻 |
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