分析師預測與新上市公司新股折價關聯性之研究

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姓名

鄭淑慧(Shu-Huei Jeng) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

分析師預測與新上市公司新股折價關聯性之研究
(Analyst forecast and IPO underpricing)

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摘要(中)

由於新上市股票於上市過程中，發行公司、承銷商和投資人三個當事人間資訊的不對稱而造成了新股折價。財務分析師是很重要的資訊中介。在理論上，財務分析師可增進投資者的知識且可降低資本市場資訊不對稱。在這篇論文中，我們藉由調查分析師預測是否能降低新股折價的幅度來提供分析師預測所造成利益的直接證明。
我們以分析師預測的一致性、總合個別分析師預測的利益及分析師人數來衡量分析師預測對資訊不對稱的影響，以探討分析師預測與新股折價的關係。另外，由於分析師在預測新股未來的每股盈餘或長期成長率時，通常會過份樂觀，因此我們亦探討分析師預測樂觀幅度與新股折價的關連性。
實證結果顯示，分析師預測一致性愈高則新股折價幅度愈小，總和個別分析師預測利益愈高則新股折價幅度愈大，分析師人數愈多則新股折價幅度愈小，分析師預測樂觀程度愈大，則新股折價幅度愈大。

摘要(英)

Underpricing and consensus exists amount analysts forecasting earnings are negative.
Underpricing and benefit of aggregating individual analysts’’ forecasts are positive.
Underpricing and analyst coverage are negative.
Underpricing and analyst optimism are positive.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師預測
★ 新股折價

關鍵字(英)

★ analyst forecast
★ IPO underpricing

論文目次

第一章緒論...... .................................................1
第二章研究假說……………………………………………………….……………….4
第一節分析師預測之理論性架構……………………...…………………………….4
第二節資訊不對稱與新股折價的關係……..………...…………………………….6
第三節分析師預測與資訊不對稱及新股折價的關係…...………………………….6
第三章資料來源與研究設計……………………………………..……..…………..7
第一節選樣資料…………….……………….……..…..…………….…………….7
第二節變數定義……..….….……………………………..…………………………9
第四章實證結果……………………………….………………..…………….…….11
第一節敘述統計分析..……….…………….………………….……………….….11
第二節多元迴歸分析………….…………….……………………………...………14
第五章敏感度分析…..………………………….……………………….………...17
第六章結論…………………………..………..………………………….………..20
參考文獻..............................................................21

參考文獻

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陳沛諭、王雅芳、金成隆( 2003)，新上市公司異常現象與創新程度關係之研究，頁2-26。

指導教授

曹壽民(Shou-min Tsao)

審核日期

2004-7-3

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