季節性商品之兩階段定價

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謝見侑(Chien-Yu Hsieh) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

工業管理研究所

論文名稱

季節性商品之兩階段定價
(Two-Stage Pricing of Seasonal Products)

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摘要(中)

本論文主要研討決策者銷售季節性商品之生產量和定價問題。一般說來，季節性商品有兩項特色：固定的存貨數量以及有限的銷售時間。因為存貨的前置時間長，無法在短銷售期間內做彈性的補貨動作，故決策者必須在期初即決定存貨生產數量的多寡，因此如何在有限的銷售期間內有效的利用價格機制是很重要的。本研究室以Lee (2001) 和Shao (2007) 的概念為基礎，提出了一個利用貝式方法來更新需求資訊的模型，決策者根據原始的機率模型來決定需要生產的存貨數量以及訂定售價，經過一段銷售時間後，利用此銷售期間所獲得的需求資訊來更新原始的機率模型，並且利用此新模型來更新剩餘存貨的售價，提供決策者一個更好的決策模型。

摘要(英)

We consider that a decision maker determines the production quantity and the selling price of a seasonal product to maximize profit. Generally, seasonal products have two features, a fixed inventory of product and a limited sale period. Lee (2001) developed a single period model to study how the decision maker of a seasonal product production system to determine the appropriate cost in forecasting. And Shao (2007) studied optimal pricing strategies for seasonal products by using Dynamic programming. In our study, the decision maker based on the prior information can determine the best production quantity and the best selling price of a seasonal product. With the sales data obtained from the first sale period, we propose a Bayesian method to determine a better pricing strategy for the decision maker.

關鍵字(中)

★ 季節性商品
★ 貝式方法
★ 價格更新

關鍵字(英)

★ seasonal products
★ Bayesian method
★ pricing
★ update

論文目次

中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
Contents iii
List of tables iv
List of figures v
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Objective 2
1.3 Thesis Framework 3
1.4 Research framework 4
2. Literature Review 5
2.1 Seasonal Products 5
2.2 Bayesian Methods 6
3. Model 9
3.1 Scenario setting and Notations 9
3.2 The two-stage model 10
4. Numerical Study 13
4.1 Data setting 13
4.2 Numerical analysis 14
4.3 Sensitivity analysis 19
5.Summary and Extensions 25
6. Reference 27

參考文獻

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指導教授

曾富祥(Fu-Shiang, Tseng)

審核日期

2009-7-9

推文