摘要(英) |
The main purpose of this research is to build a forecasting model for the container throughput (import/export/transshipment) of Kaohsiung Port. Practice shows that import container volume is a derivative transportation demand which is related to domestic economic activity while export container volume reflects the derivative demand of economic activity between Taiwan and other trading countries. Domestic economy is closely connected to other trading countries, so import container volume and export container volume influence each other in a mutual and simultaneous way. The volume of Transshipment container is effected by the transportation behavior change of container carriers, large-scale trend for container ships and flourishing of lighter aboard ships; in response to the freight volume demand of large-scale container ships, that is, mother vessels berth alongside ports with bigger container traffic demands. For the container traffic demands in neighboring areas, first consolidating in feeder ports, then utilizing barges to transport the goods to the ports where mother vessels are berthing, hence, to complete the entire transportation. As the surge of China’s domestic demand, attracted by the tremendous demand for containers, the shipping companies gradually relocate the ship routes to deep-water ports in China; Taiwan’s import/export container demand is not as big as that of mainland China, but for shipping companies, it is still a considerable demand. Furthermore, considering the factors that Kaohsiung Port is more efficient in loading and unloading, has frequent incoming and outgoing ships and port related policies favor shipping companies, all of these are beneficial for Kaohsiung to win the position as top regional feeder port. Thus, the transshipment container volume is affected by import and export container volumes and forms simultaneous relationship among import, export and transshipment container volume. The forecasting of port traffic has always been an important factor in port investment plan and exact port traffic forecasting can effectively help port operators to know future container demands, hence, designing the most suitable investment plan can reduce unnecessary national construction expenses. This research utilizes the simultaneous relationship among import, export and transshipment container volumes and builds a simultaneous influence behavior model of import, export and transshipment with historical data. Using ARIMA model to gain estimated exogenous variables and substituting estimated exogenous variables in simultaneous equation to gain the forecasted value of container throughputs. The research shows that the significant variable for import container volume is the export container volume; the significant variables for export container volume are import container quantity and index of industrial production in Hong Kong. The significant variables for transshipment container volumes are export container traffic, container volume in offshore transshipment center, average berthing time and the average number of incoming and outgoing ships. Finally, adding Special Economic Zone Taiwan Strait West bank as well as Taipei port operation into the empirical discussion, and modifying the estimated value of container traffic in Kaohsiung Port calculated in this research.
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