台灣區域震源潛勢地震發生機率之評估與分析

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姓名

葉宏融(Hung-jung Yeh) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

地球物理研究所

論文名稱

台灣區域震源潛勢地震發生機率之評估與分析
(Estimation and Analysis of The Potential Earthquake Probabilities in Taiwan)

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摘要(中)

台灣位於歐亞板塊及菲律賓海板塊間的弧陸碰撞帶上，由於板塊間的碰撞擠壓
作用，使得台灣地震活動相當頻繁，在1999年9月21日集集地震後，由於造成重大的
損失及傷亡，使得國內各界對於地震預測相關研究產生高度重視，但由於對地震發生
機制還未徹底了解，導致地震準確預測之研究困難度極高，因此在進行地震預測研究
同時，也試著以地震潛勢發生機率作為未來地震防災規劃參考，並以相關統計方法評
估並分析台灣區域震源潛勢地震發生機率，以此方法得到地震災害潛勢之結果，並利
用其結果作為長期地震災害評估所使用。
本研究之目的為藉由中央氣象局之地震目錄，利用台灣電力公司核電廠耐震安
全評估所使用震源分區「Ｄ」之淺層分區，並假設地震的發生遵循柏松過程，且對地
震目錄去除各主震之餘震，經由統計分析以得到地震特性參數，以此建立地震機率模
型，作為評估台灣地區未來地震發生機率的依據，其主要概念是對某特定地區內的地
震做統計分析，並以再現週期建立各區域的機率模型，並考慮地震之靜待期，計算在
未來10年至50年內可能發生地震之機率。而對於微分區潛勢地震發生機率，則是將分
區方式改成以較小網格取代震源分區，並以網格中心搜尋適當範圍內之地震紀錄來計
算a值，而震源分區所計算之b值可代表該分區之地震特性，所以則以網格所處區域震
源分區之b值代替，並利用區域震源潛勢地震發生機率評估之方法，計算未來10、20、
50年之潛勢地震發生機率。
在本研究中，對於分區方法雖提出區域震源分區及微分區網格，但對於微分區
網格中與地震特性相關之b值，還是使用震源分區所計算出的b值，在未來若能有更完
整的微分區網格之地震目錄，則可使用微分區網格搜尋範圍內之地震目錄所計算之b
值，即能更顯現出較能符合網格及較高可信度的潛勢地震發生機率值。目前台灣的地
震目錄資料仍有限，大規模地震資料較為缺乏，在未來隨著時間，而地震紀錄增加
後，重新計算潛勢地震發生機率值後，可使結果更為可信。

摘要(英)

Taiwan is located on the boundary between Eurasia Plate and Philippines Sea
Plate and earthquakes occur frequently. Many disasters and casualties caused by
the earthquake, like Chi-Chi earthquake, in September 21, 1999. For this reason,
studying in earthquake is important to Taiwan. Though earthquake forecast hasnʼt
developed completely today, we still need to estimate the potential of earthquake
and prevent disasters first.
! The purpose of this study is to use the earthquake catalog of the Central
Weather Bureau. Assuming the occurrence of earthquakes follows by the Poisson
process, and removing aftershocks of the earthquake catalog. Through statistical
analysis to obtain the seismic parameters, to build earthquake probability models as
assessing the earthquake in the future in Taiwan based on probability.The major
concept is that for the statistical analysis in some particular area, we build the
probability midel in each area by mean of earthquake space time, taking elapse time
of the earthquake into consideration and calculating the probabilities of earthquakes
in 10 to 50 years. For the grid in which micro Region was the source area of the
region instead of b value and potential use of regional earthquake source probability
assessment method to calculate the incidence of potential earthquakes in next
10,20,50 years.
! In this study, the b value of the micro grid still use the result of regional
epicenter. In the future, if there is more complete grid of the micro zone earthquake
catalog, you can use the micro area network cells within the scope of the earthquake
catalog search computed b values, which plays a more than able to meet the high
reliability of the grid and the potential of earthquake probabilities. As time passes in
future, after increasing the seismic record, the result of re-calculation of potential
earthquake probability will be more reliable.

關鍵字(中)

★ 微分區
★ 再現週期
★ 機率模型
★ 潛勢地震發生機率

關鍵字(英)

★ probability model
★ Potential Earthquake Probabilities
★ micro grid

論文目次

第一章緒論 .............................................................................................................................................1
1.1 研究動機及目的 ......................................................................................................1
1.2 文獻回顧 .......................................................................................................................2
1.3 國外地震潛勢研究 ................................................................................................2
1.4 研究流程 .......................................................................................................................3
第二章台灣地體構造與地震目錄 ............................................................................................7
2.1 前言 .................................................................................................................................7
2.2 台灣地體構造 ...........................................................................................................7
2.3 地震目錄 .......................................................................................................................8
第三章研究原理與方法 ..................................................................................................................14
3.1 前言 .................................................................................................................................14
3.2 柏松模式 .......................................................................................................................14
3.3 震源分區 .......................................................................................................................15
3.4 地震規模與再現週期 ...........................................................................................16
3.5 迴歸方法 .......................................................................................................................17
3.5.1 最小平方法 ..................................................................................................17
3.5.2 最大似然估計法 .......................................................................................18
3.5.3 R value and Mc ........................................................................................18
3.6 潛勢地震發生機率模型 .....................................................................................19
第四章區域震源潛勢地震發生機率評估 ...........................................................................25
4.1 前言 .................................................................................................................................25
4.2 地震累計發生個數 ................................................................................................25
4.3 迴歸方法 .......................................................................................................................26
4.3.1 最小平方法 ..................................................................................................26
4.3.2 最大似然估計法 ......................................................................................27
4.4 b值測試 .........................................................................................................................28
iv
4.5 a值測試 .........................................................................................................................30
4.6 地震之再現週期 ......................................................................................................30
4.7 潛勢地震發生機率 ................................................................................................31
第五章微分區潛勢地震發生機率評估 ...............................................................................113
5.1 微分區之目的及分區方法 .............................................................................113
5.2 微分區潛勢地震發生機率評估 ..................................................................113
5.3 微分區與區域震源分區之機率值比較 ..................................................116
第六章結論 ...........................................................................................................................................145
6.1 研究成果 ....................................................................................................................145
6.2 未來研究方向 .........................................................................................................147
參考文獻 ...................................................................................................................................................148

參考文獻

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149

指導教授

溫國樑、黃明偉
(Kuo-liang Wen、Ming-wey Huang)

審核日期

2010-7-26

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