| 摘要: | 台灣股票市場開放以來，市場活絡不絕，外資、投信及自營商等三大法人，無不以各公司經濟上的基本面及股價波動上的技術面來分析各公司之價值，考量公司之獲利能力、生產情形、接單情形及公司營運等情形，藉此找出並研判各公司在證券市場上之合理價格。基本分析可以提供投資者良好的投資評估參考，現今股市投資者也常常利用公司財務報告中各會計科目資訊的變動來預期未來股價的走向，但在學界研究上卻忽略了此一觀點，因此本研究欲藉由迴歸分析，來分析存貨淨額、投資、負債總額、股東權益、營業收入淨額、營業成本、毛利率、投資損益及基本每股盈餘-稅後等會計科目對股價之影響，並得出對股價最有影響之相關會計科目，藉由此相關會計科目對股價進行分析，提供投資大眾之判斷能力。 本研究以國內NB廠商及其零組件廠商於2007年前三季存貨淨額、投資、負債總額、股東權益、營業收入淨額、營業成本、毛利率、投資損益及基本每股盈餘-稅後等會計科目及各該公司股價為主要研究範圍，資料型態以季為單位。在收集及分析「股價數據」時，本研究係以各公司每季最後五個營業日之平均收盤價格為依據。研究結果顯示，在使用迴歸分析進行股價預測時，證實股價變動是由存貨、投資、營業收入淨額、投資損益及基本每股盈餘等五個會計科目改變而引起的變動佔有66.3%的比率，具有相當程度之相關性，因此由當我們可得知上述五個自變數時，將可進行預測股價，這將可以提供投資人在進行股票投資時，能有一部份之參考依據。 Since Taiwan’s authority has opened the stock market, the market activity is in an endless stream. Such the three legal persons as the foreign investor, a securities investment trust enterprise and a securities dealer, analyse the value of every company with the financial basic side of every company and technological side of the stock price change, consider earning capacity, production situation of company, order situation and company operation situation, hope to find out and study and judge the reasonable price on the security market of every company by this. Analyse basically that can offer investor good investment to assess and consult, stock market investors have often utilized in company's financial report too trend of the future stock price of expectancy has come in the change of every accounting item information now, but has neglected this view in the educational circles are studied, so this research wants by regression analysis, to analyse the inventories, investments, total liabilities, total stockholder's equity, net sales, cost of sales, gross profit rate, equity in earnings of equity method investees, net and basic earings per share afer tax - accounting item influence in stock price, draw relevant accounting items of influencing top of the stock price, make use of therefore relevant accounting items are analysed to the stock price, offer judgement of investors. This main research range of research is such accounting items as the inventories, investments, total liabilities, total stockholder's equity, net sales, cost of sales, gross profit rate, equity in earnings of equity method investees, net and basic earings per share afer tax - accounting item and every this company of three quarters before 2007 of domestic NB manufacturer and compnent manufacturer Stock price, the materials type attitude regards quarter as the unit. While collecting and analysing ' the stock price data ', this research is to regard average closing price of every last five business day of quarter of every company as the basis. The result of study shows, while using regression analysis to analyse that predict the stock price, verify the change of the stock price is changed by such five accounting items as the inventories, investments, net sales, equity in earnings of equity method investees, net and basic earings per share afer tax,etc. but the change that cause occupies 66.3% of the rates, have dependence analogous to the degree, so by when we can learn above-mentioned five independent variables, can predict the stock price, this can be offered to investors while carrying on equity investment, there can be reference basis of a part. |
