| 摘要: | 證券市場迷人的地方在於其股價的不可預測性，然而不論是學界或是實務界，卻都試圖以其所信可的評價模式給予企業一合理的價格，並以此依據進行投資決策。 評價的方法含蓋了資產價值評價模式（Asset Appraisal Approach）、折現評價模型（Discounted Valuation Model）、相對指標評價模型等，而這眾多的評價模式中相對指標評價模式因取得數據容易加上方法簡單易懂，故成為資本市場上最常使用的評價方式之一。本研究之所以選定本益比（P/E Ratio）做為研究方向，主要原因來自於此一評價方式是市場上最常被使用的數據，故以本益比當做應變數，以營收（Revenue）、毛利率、存貨周轉天數、股本、法人持股、股東權益報酬率等各種數值做為解釋變數，試圖找出影響本益比的因子，以供投資人在選擇以本益比做為評價方法的依據。 實證後的結果顯示營收波動（moment）代表企業市佔率增減、新產品效益顯現與否，故與本益比呈現正相關走勢，未來投資人可留意企業營收變化，若向上則本益比可望提高，反之則降低。 再者，實證結果亦顯示存貨周轉天數越高代表企業面臨景氣反轉向下的機率越高；亦代表公司某一層度上管理能力的不足，是故，與本益比呈現反向關係；反之，存貨天數越低可享有的本益比越高。 另一項結果顯示，股本小的企業短期雖享有較高的本益比，但長期而言，由於股本大的企業享有資源較多，累積的客戶數或專利權亦較多，故長期而言，實證顯示股本大的企業市場願意給予本益比仍較高。 The volatility of the stock price make it difficult but fascinating to predict stock prices. Academics or the practitioners try to evaluate the listed company fairly and make the investment action. The common valuation methods include 1) Asset Appraisal Approach, 2) Discounted Valuation Model, and 3) Relative Valuation. Among the above three methods, the Relative Valuation is the most popular method in capital market, thanks to its simple calculation. Therefore, I hereby choose P/E ratio to be the valuation methodology in my research. In this report, the dependent variable is the P/E ratio, and the independent variables include the company’s revenues, margins, inventory turnover in days, shares outstandings, institutional investors holdings, and return on equity. Our results show that the moment of a company’s revenue represents its increase or decrease in market share from the new products. Based on our research, P/E ratio is related the company’s revenue performance. The investors are suggested to monitor the company’s revenue trends. Furthermore, the higher days in inventory turnover also imply that the company is either facing a downturn in the industry cycle, or a weak management of the company. Therefore, the days in inventory turnover is negatively related to the P/E ratio. Another result shows that a small company, in terms of its shares outstanding, enjoys higher P/E ratio in the short-term but not in the long run. In the long run, the big company is expected to have a higher valuation since it has much more resources and solid client base. |
