本研究嘗試估計考慮資料訊息問題下之台灣前瞻性法則方程式。由於台灣官方並無即時資料庫，因此本研究使用行政院主計處初次發布之新聞稿內統計資料，定義其為「即時資料」，並與修正後資料之估計結果進行比較。同時，因為台灣為小型開放經濟體，本研究亦在法則方程式中加入匯率變數進行討論。本文之主要實證果顯示：相較於傳統同期模型之設定，通貨膨脹率具有前瞻性之模型較能捕捉台灣央行之施政。再者，使用即時資料估計貨幣法則，可發現實質產出缺口及通貨膨脹之反應係數均較使用修正後資料之估計結果小，此差異即反應資料訊息問題。最後，本研究發現考慮名目匯率變動率後，法則方程式之解釋能力並無改善，而此一結論與文獻上之結果一致。 We estimate Taiwan’s forward-looking monetary policy reaction function after dealing with the data information problems. Because the monetary authority of Tai-wan didn’t release the real-time data, we use the news that is officially released by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics. The estimated policy reac-tion functions using the real-time data are compared with those using the revised data. Taking into account the fact that Taiwan is a small open economy, we allow the ex-change rate target to enter policy reaction function. The main findings of this study are stated as follows. First, the forward-looking model can better describe the policy of the Central Bank of Taiwan. Second, the estimated policy response coefficients of real output gap and expected inflation rate based on the real-time data are smaller than those based on the revised data. The difference might be due to the data information problems. Finally, adding exchange rate target in the policy rule cannot provide a bet-ter description of the policy actions of Taiwan’s monetary authority.
