| 摘要: | 我國為一小型又高度開放的國家，對外貿易為我國經濟發展之命脈，2004 年起出進口佔國內生產毛額已超過1 00%。隨著經濟自由化與國際化的腳步，對於貿易依存度極高的國家而言，匯率變動對國內企業影響甚鉅。 在面臨複雜的國際環境及外匯曝險情況下， 我國企業應如何在多變的環境中生存？ 本文將從經濟面、非經濟面探討影響匯率變動的幾個因素、並以影響匯率變動的總體經濟因素：國際收支、物價指數(CPI)、利率(RD)、經濟成長率、外匯存底等因素， 應用實證研究來探討上述經濟因素對台幣兌美元匯率之關聯性， 提供企業以簡單的數據掌握匯率變動之趨勢， 使企業能採取適切的避險措施進而預防企業的獲利性因匯兌損失而被稀釋。實證結果發現， 若台灣的國際收支淨額增加、台灣利率高於美國的利率、台灣的經濟成長率高於美國的經濟成長率、台灣的外匯存底增加將促使新台幣升值； 若台灣的消費者物價指數高於美國消費者物價指數， 將使新台幣貶 值， 均與經濟理論相符。並以實例介紹企業最常用的匯率衍生性金融商品避險工具， 提供企業更多元的選擇。Taiwan is a small and highly-open country. Foreign trade is the lifeline of Taiwan’s economic development. Since 2004, the total volume of the exports and imports trade has been greater than the gross domestic product (GDP) of Taiwan. With the pace of economic liberalization and internationalization, exchange rate changes have enormous influence on the firms in Taiwan, where there is high trade dependence. In the face of a complex international environment and foreign exchange rate exposure circumstances, how Taiwan’s enterprises survive in such a changeable environment turns to be an important issue. This article is about to probe into, from the economic to the non-economic aspects, some basic factors affecting NT exchange rate. Meanwhile, in terms of such various economic factors as the balance of payments, price index (CPI), the interest rate (RD), economic growth, foreign reserves, etc., this article presents the empirical research of exploring the relation between these mentioned economic factors and NT exchange rate to USD. It also tries to provide enterprises with some data to grasp the trend of exchange rate changes, so as to hedge with adequately-managed strategies against foreign exchange risks that might cause lower profit because of loss on exchange. Furthermore, the empirical evidence of this investigation shows that under the circumstances of the net increase in Taiwan's international balance of payments, that Taiwan’s interest rates are higher than U.S.’s, that Taiwan's economic growth rates are higher than U.S.’s, and that Taiwan's foreign exchange reserves increase, the appreciation of NT Dollar will be promoted. However, if Taiwan Consumer Price Index is higher than the U.S.’s, it will make NT dollar depreciate. Both these results are consistent with economic theories. The article, for the sake of offering various options to enterprises, also comes with the practical examples to indicate some of the most common strategies which utilize exchange rate derivatives for hedging. |
