| 摘要: | 過去二十年台灣股市曾三度上探萬點，背後所隱含的意義卻不相同。從這三次台股站上萬點時的類股結構來看，可以發現，1990年台股站上12,682點時，外銷導向類股如：電子、紡織等占台股市值比重僅約15%，而1997年台股站上10,256點，外銷導向類股占台股市值比重上升至40%水準，至2000年台股再度登上10,227點時，以電子股為主體的外銷導向產業，占台股市值比重已達60%水準，顯示電子產業對國內金融及經濟影響比重有逐漸上升趨勢。惟萬點行情的結束，除受全球經濟景氣影響外，另一原因便始於企業財務危機事件的發生。 本研究主要探討如何利用企業財務比率等因子，藉以供為金融機構授信風險評估，研究期間自2000年至2005年，以國內上市電子產業為研究標的，以2000年至2005年發生危機的上市電子公司，及與危機公司相同產業別正常上市電子公司為樣本，共101家公司進行分析。本研究採用logistic迴歸模式將財務比率分別建構財務危機預警模型，找出明顯影響財務危機之財務比率因子，另實證結果亦顯示，越接近發生財務危機的年度預測效果及準確度相對較高。 In the past twenty year, Taiwan Stock quote has reached 10,000 points for three times. By observing the various sector structures from these three occasions, we can find that when Taiwan Stock quote reached 12,682 points in 1990, export-oriented sectors such as Electronic, Textile etc. were accounted approximately 15% of Taiwan Stock market value. In 1997 when Taiwan Stock quote reached 10,256 points, the ratio has upraised to 40%, and to 60% when stock quote reached 10,227 points in 2000. It appears that electronic industry has progressively influence on Taiwan finance and economic. Only when 10,000 stock quote end, besides the global economic influence, the main reason is enterprises financial crisis. This research discusses how to provide financial facility credibility risk evaluation by using enterprise financial ratio factors. The research targets the Taiwan listed electronic enterprise from 2000 to 2005, and analyzes 101 companies’data includes those has crisis listed companies and normal listed companies. This research analyzes financial ratio by using logistic regression to construct the financial crisis precaution model. We discover the obvious effective factors lead to financial crisis, and also the result indicates that the closer the financial crisis year, the more accurate the prediction is. |
