| 摘要: | 過去在追求環境永續性提升的方法通常是先進行對環境永續性之評估，再根據評估結果而先研擬政策或區域之整體性策略，最後再訂定政策或區域內各污染排放者與資源使用者之管理策略及行動計畫。然而此種分段式規劃方法缺乏系統性的考量，無法達到整體政策或區域的最大永續性。因此本研究之目的在於發展環境永續性與總量管理方法論與系統，以克服上述分段式規劃方法之缺點。本研究首先以系統思維(Systems thinking)、結果管理(Managing for Results)、系統分析(Systems analysis)等方法，發展環境永續性與總量管理體系架構，並結合驅動力─壓力─狀態─衝擊─回應(Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response, DPSIR)架構，發展一套包括環境、社會、經濟三面向的指標系統，此一指標系統乃是依據DPSIR關係而用於發展環境永續性與總量管理模式，以同時評估與計算得到最大之永續性，代表促進永續發展之效益。本研究同時根據系統層級性，發展出以物件鏈結三個決策層之多階段多選擇概念模式架構，以發展出雙重界限(目標值與限制值)隱式列舉法(Enumeration of Multiple Bounds for Objectives and Constraints, EMBOC)之求解演算法，而解決同時擬定整體管理策略與個別污染者/使用者管理策略之複雜問題。本研究並根據上述體系架構與模式，以Visual Basic、地理資訊系統(Geographic Information System, GIS)、MS Excel軟體，發展環境永續性與總量管理雛型系統。本研究以我國高爾夫球場設置政策以及中壢工業區為案例研究對象，不但可得到上述政策及工業區之最大永續值，同時可以得到最佳策略下的高爾夫球場設置總量、各高爾夫球場之污染防治/資源調配管理策略，以及工業區整體污染排放/資源使用總量、區內所有工廠之污染排放/資源使用量等。研究結果顯示，本研究所提出之方法論與雛型系統，初步能夠有效協助主管機關以系統化的方法研擬出政策與工業區管理之策略與行動計畫，以追求提昇政策與工業區之永續性。 The methods for promoting the environmental sustainability are usually to assess the environmental sustainability at first. Then, the integral strategy for a policy or a region is generated based on the assessment results. The management strategy and action plan for each pollution discharger and resource user are devised according to the integral strategy at last. However, this separately planning method lacks of systematical considerations. Achieving the maximal sustainability of a policy or a region is difficult. The purpose of this study is to develop an environmental sustainability and total quantity management methodology and system. This study uses the methods of systems thinking, managing for results (MFRs), and systems analysis to develop an environmental sustainability and total quantity management framework. An indicator system, which involves environmental, social, and economic phases, is devised based on this framework and the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. This indicator system is integrated into an optimization model based on its DPSIR relationships to simultaneously assess and obtain the maximal sustainability, meaning the effectiveness of moving toward sustainable development. A conceptual multiple-stage-option model framework is developed, which uses the concept of object to link the multiple decision layers based on the thinking in hierarchy of system structure. The enumeration of multiple bounds for objectives and constraints (EMBOC) is developed to devise the optimization model to simultaneously generate the strategies for the integral region and the individual source of pollution discharge and resource use. This study develops a prototype system for environmental sustainability and total quantity management (ESTQMS) using Visual Basic, geographic information system (GIS), and MS Excel. The golf course installation policy and the Jhongli Industrial Park in Taiwan are used as case studies. The optimal sustainability of this policy and this industrial park can be obtained. Furthermore, the total quantities of golf courses, the management strategies for pollution control and resource allocation of each golf course, the total quantities of pollution discharges and resource uses of this industrial park, and the quantities of pollution discharges and resource uses of each manufactory can be obtained together. Analytical results indicated that the proposed methodology and prototype system can be preliminary used to assist the authorities to effectively and systematically generate the strategies and action plans for policy and industrial park management while simultaneously pursuing their optimal sustainability. |
