| 摘要: | 由於近年來國內汽油價格受到國際原油價格影響變化劇烈，且過去國內在新車市場的需求面上，同時考慮汽車的銷售價格、燃油消費、以及汽車特徵的研究較少，故本論文旨在探討消費者在購買國產汽車時，相對於其它汽車特徵是否更重視車款的燃油效率，以及汽油價格和汽車價格分別與台灣國產車需求的關連性。本文藉由所蒐集1997~2011年的汽車銷售量、可觀察到的特徵及汽油價格資料，利用間斷選擇模型 ( discrete choice model ) 所發展出的巢狀羅吉特模型 ( nested logit model ) 估計消費者對異質產品需求的偏好。 研究結果得出三大結論：第一是汽油價格上漲時，提高每公里的燃油消費會使國產汽車銷售量下滑，顯示國人對汽油價格的變化具有一定的敏感度。第二是基於燃油效率與其它汽車特徵的負相關性質，消費者對於汽車的重量有顯著的偏好，但沒有證據可以支持汽車的馬力對銷售量有顯著的影響。第三是台灣汽車的需求平均價格彈性高達-4.12，明顯高於美國汽車市場的需求平均價格彈性，顯示台灣的消費者對於汽車價格的敏感度較高，汽車市場的競爭也相當激烈。 In recent years, gas price in Taiwan has been fluctuating greatly under the influence of international natural gas prices. Besides, in the past years, on the demand side of our new car market, only a few studies have been done considering the auto sale prices, fuel consumption, and auto characteristics. The purpose of this study is to explore when buying cars, will consumers pay more attention to the fuel efficiency of the model than other car features, as well as the relationship among gas price, car price, and the demand of cars. A nested logit model was developed based on discrete choice model, in which the data of the auto sales, observable features, and the gas prices during the period from 1997 to 2011 were used to estimate the consumers’ preference toward the demand of different products. The research findings include: first, when the gas price goes up, the fuel consumption per mile will rise, which will lead to the falling of the car sale. This also indicates the consumers’ sensitivity toward the changes of the gas price. Secondly, the negative correlation between fuel efficiency and car features reveals that consumers’ preference toward the weight of the car is significant. Nevertheless, no evidence can support that the horse power of the car will significantly affect the car sale. Finally, the average price elasticity of auto demand in Taiwan is up to -4.12, which is higher than that of the American auto market. This also indicates that consumers in Taiwan are highly sensitive to auto prices, and there is a keen competition in the local auto market. |
