本研究的目的在於探討台灣民眾的從業身分轉換決策以及檢測「不景氣-推擠」假說的成立。資料來源使用行政院主計處1999至2009年的「人力運用-擬追蹤調查資料庫」，利用每兩年相同的樣本作ㄧ短期混和追蹤調查資料，實證模型為採用Evans and Leighton（1989）的模型假設，建立數個probit model，並且在估計由私人受雇者轉換至自營作業者的決策時，考慮「前一期為私人受雇者」的內生性問題，利用最大概似估計法估計轉換決策。 轉置矩陣的結果發現一部分的自營作業者以成為雇主為目標，並且雇主身分的工作者會把自營作業部門當作是經商失敗時的棲身之所。另外，本研究亦發現男性較女性有動機轉向雇主部門或是自營作業部門，而女性則較偏好成為私人受雇者。 而從實證結果可知，在1999至2009年間，台灣的就業市場符合「不景氣-推擠」效果假說，表示在景氣衰退時期，多餘的私人受雇者會被推擠至自營作業部門。然而，本文亦發現景氣對從業身分轉換至雇主的影響較不顯著。另外，在探討景氣對工作轉換機率是否有時間落後的效果時，發現景氣惡化兩年後，不適的自營作業者就會維持不下去而轉為失業。此外，該景氣指標對其他工作轉換的影響則是不顯著。財務動機方面，發現從私人受雇者轉換至雇主身分確實存在薪資溢酬的效果。 The purpose of this study is to explore what is the factor of who transform their work status and to test the “recession-push" hypothesis. Use the Manpower Tracker survey data from 1999 to 2009, and then merge every two years have the same sample be a short-term mixed panal data. In this study, we built a number of probit models, and used the Maximum likelihood method to solve the endogenous problem of the "decision of one be a privately employed" when we estimated the probability of the private employed sector transit into self-employed sector. From the transition matrix, we found that some self-employments have the target to be the business owners, and business owners suppose the self-employed sector be their failure shelter. In addition, the study also found that more male than female have an incentive to turn to the business owner sector or self-employed sector, while women prefer the private employed. Based on the empirical results, we proved the "recession - pushing" hypothesis during the study period. The result means the excess of private employees will be pushed to self-employed sector in the recession period. In addition, we estimated the prosperity index whether have lag effect, and then found unwell self-employments will be unemployed after two years in the recession period. On the other hand, we found that business owners who transit from private employed sector have the wage premium effect.
