近幾年隨著中國經濟的快速發展，中國的廉價勞動力優勢逐漸消失。對於到中國投資的企業而言，需要有明確的資訊讓他們對企業的未來進行規劃，本文即著重於此類的思考與研究。 從政策面來看，中國從1953年開始至今共經歷了十二個五年計畫，中國初期的經濟發展主要是仰賴產品出口，在這一時期，中國最大的競爭優勢在於眾多的勞動人口及廉價的勞動成本。但隨著中國政府在十五計畫期間提出的產業升級，到十一五期編調整產業結構及完善經濟體制，再到十二五的擴大內需及以富民為主要計畫主軸，政策方向可看出勞力成本昇高的趨勢以勢在必行。 從中國總體經濟的發展來看，中國 GDP 成長率從2001年至2010年均維持大於 8% 的成長力道。工業產值於 2010年的成長比率為 12.1%。2010 全年度城鎮新增就業 1168 萬人，比 2009 年增加 66萬人。年末城鎮登記失業率為 4.1%，比2009年末下降 0.2百分點。居民消費價格2010年平均比2009年上漲3.3%。全年農村居民人均純收入5919元，剔除價格因素，比上年實際成長10.9%；城鎮居民人均可支配收入19109元，實際成長7.8%。從 GDP成長率及居民消費價格觀察，薪資水平會與此兩項有正相關性，隨著兩項指標的昇高，勞動成本的成長趨勢將成必然的局面。而工業產值提高、城鎮就業機會增加及失業率的下降，也顯示出企業對人力的需求會有所昇高，而勞動力供需的選擇權將會轉移到勞動者身上。 經由對相關參考文獻的研究，發現效率工資及激勵理論在企業對應中國經濟發展及勞動成本昇高的問題時，能夠給予企業人資部門很好的參考價值。其中，效率工資具有吸引並留住高素質的員工、降低監控成本、提高專業人員的辭職成本，保證企業競爭力的持續發展 等幾項優點。而需求理論亦將員工的需求進行了更細緻的分析，如生理需要、安全需要、社會需要、尊重需要和自我實現需要，可做為公司在激勵制度制定時的參考依據。 本文透過線性相關的分析，發現前一年GDP成長率與當年薪酬成長率之間具有很高的線性相關，主要是政府在對最低勞動薪資調整時，前一年 GDP成長率的成長狀況也會列為考量因素。但當年度薪酬成長率與當年度GDP成長率之間的線性相關性較低，初步分析可能與中國初期是以出口為導向，國內消費對GDP成長率的貢獻度較低，所以，當職工薪酬成長時，對 GDP成長率的影響相對較小；但隨政府十二五規劃中所提及的擴大內需政策主軸，後續職工薪酬成長率對當年度 GDP成長率的影響也將會越來越高。本文透過線性相關公式推算，預計2012年的職工薪酬成長幅度約為 8.2%左右，該部分可作為個案公司及相關企業在薪酬調整上的參考。 本文透過對中國政策及總體經濟的分析，得出企業在未來勢必要做些改變，而改變得方向除了進行企業轉型外，在人力資源管理及薪酬決策部分，也必須進行改革。建議企業主要的改善方向可規納為以下幾點： 1. 企業轉型升級、增加企業競爭力 2. 提昇員工素質、增加人均效益 3. 重視整體薪酬 4. 提昇績效工資比重 5. 以增加勞動時間增加產值，而不是新雇佣員工 中國在經歷了多年經濟改革後，其經濟發展已慢慢追趕上了已開發國家，對於未來想在中國發展的企業而言，中國經濟發展趨勢及各項政策的推行已對其產生重大影響，尤其是在用人方面。因此，企業需要花費更多的心思在經濟發展層面上，以免在未來的經濟變革中被淘汰掉。China’s cheap labor advantage gradually disappeared with China’s rapid economic development in recent years. For enterprises, they need clear information to planning the future of the company. This article focuses on such thinking and research. China has experienced twelve 5-year plan since 1953. China's early economic development is primarily dependent on exports. China's biggest competitive advantage is that many of the labors and cheap labor costs during this period. But with the industrial upgrading and the plan which let the people of the rich of the Chinese government, Can be seen rising trend in labor costs is imperative. From China's overall economic development, China's GDP growth rate from 2001 to 2010 to maintain an average annual growth of more than 8%. Industrial output growth rate in 2010 was 12.1%. The employment of cities and towns in 2010 was 1168 million. The urban registered unemployment rate was 4.1%.2010 consumer prices on average rose 3.3 percent compared to 2009. 2010 consumer prices on average rose 3.3 percent compared to 2009. Wages and GDP growth rate and consumer prices have positive correlation with the rise of two indicators, the growth trend of labor costs will become an inevitable situation. Industrial output increased, the increase of urban employment opportunities and the decline in the unemployment rate also shows that the enterprise has increased the demand for manpower and labor supply and demand the right to choose will be transferred to the workers. Efficiency wage and incentive theory corresponds to China's economic development and labor costs increased in the enterprise, corporate human resources departments can give a good reference value. The efficiency wage can retain highly qualified employees, reduce monitoring costs and ensure the competitiveness of enterprises. Demand theory has detailed analysis of the demand for employees, can be used as the reference for the incentive system to develop. Through linear correlation analysis, we found between the GDP growth rate in the previous year and the wage growth rate has a high linear correlation, because in the minimum labor salary adjustment, the Government will consider the status of the previous year GDP growth rate. Through the linear formula projections, the 2012 growth rate of the employee benefits was 8.2%. The part can be used as the reference for companies. With China’s policy adjustments and overall economic development, the companies have to make some changes in the future. We have some suggestion as below. 1. Corporate upgrading and increasing the competitiveness of enterprises. 2. Improving staff quality, and increases work efficiency. 3. Emphasis on the overall remuneration. 4. Enhance the proportion of performance pay. 5. Increase output by increasing the working hours, rather than hiring new staff.
