| 摘要: | 發光二極體因節能之特性，被廣泛應用於手機背光、交通號誌、汽車車燈及大尺寸背光模組等的應用上，未來最大宗的應用將是全世界的照明，尤其在京都議定書及哥本哈根協議簽訂後，提升能源效率，已為各國政府積極推行的政策，無庸置疑是相當具有發展潛力的產業。而台灣廠商本身完整產業鏈在整合效應利基下，整體產業產值之成長可期，但隨著科技不斷的進步及各國政策推動下，新進入者多，產業競爭激烈，對發光二極體產業產生了極大影響，本研究將探討LED產業及代表廠商所受的衝擊並建議商業模式調整方向。本研究以深入觀察個案為主要研究方法，並佐以歷史文獻及資料整理分析，使研究更具客觀性，並深入了解個案公司現況及面對產業變動的態度。本研究以波特五力分析、8十商業模式要素探悉個案公司的外部環境的機會、威脅及內部條件的優勢、劣勢，並依SWOT分析彙整提出建議。最後以現金流量評價模式，試圖尋找個案公司合理的企業價值及合理股價。本研究結果認為晶電的機會為產業市場發展潛力大，台灣LED產業結構完整，行銷通路通暢，晶電擁有資本及技術密集優勢，可搶占市場佔有率；晶電的威脅是市場競爭愈趨激烈，除國外大廠外，中、韓在政府扶植下正在興起；而晶電的優勢在於強的經營團隊、穩定技術與品質及擁有許多關鍵夥伴；劣勢在於勞工成本高漲及管理效率提升。在評價面，晶電除在2011年4月之後，受歐債危機影響股價跌破股價下限外，股價穩定在最可能值上下徘徊。依據上述研究結果在策略面建議如下四種方式提升競爭力：強化研發能力，開創藍海策略；提升經濟規模；策略聯盟，深耕大陸市場；提升成本與管理競爭能力。在評價面，現金流量折現模式對於晶電股價預測具有一定的準確度。Light-emitting diode is widely applied to mobile phone backlights, traffic lights, automotive headlamps and large-size backlight modules due to its energy-saving character, which its most extensive application in the future will be the lightening in the world. Especially after Kyoto Protocol and agreement of Copenhagen are signed, raising the energy efficiency has become a significant policy that many governments promote actively. Undoubtedly, the LED industry has great potential to develop. Once the manufacturers in Taiwan had the complete industry chain to expand the output value due to their integrated effect; however, with the continuous progress of technology and the governments’ promotion to the energy policy, the entrants become more and has lead to a violent competition, which is greatly influencing on LED industry. This research will probe into the status of LED industry, the impacts on the representative manufacturers, and finally providing suggestions for adjusting the business model. Mainly the research method for this paper uses case study, accompanied by historical literature and document analysis, which makes this research become more objective. Thus, there will be a further view of the company in the case study and realize its attitude to face the challenges in LED industry. This research utilizes Porter Five Forces Analysis to find out the chances and threats of the company in the case study, analyzing their strengths and weaknesses via the four factors in the business model and integrating them as SWOT Analysis to provide appropriate suggestions. Finally, it will apply the DCF valuation model to seek for the proper corporate value and fair share price.Via the result of this research, Epistar holds its great potential and opportunity to develop in the market because the LED industrial structure in Taiwan is complete and has smooth marketing channels, which lets Epistar have a certain economic and technical scale to expand the market share. Meanwhile, Epistar faces a more and more drastic competition in the market with other manufactures that not only comes from the Eastern countries but also those manufacturers supported by PRC and South Korea. The strengths of Epistar depend on their strong management team, stable technology and high quality, with possessing many business partners; the weaknesses lie in the rising labor cost, the low efficiency in asset turnover…etc, which need to integrate the resources and update their efficiency. From the viewpoint of enterprise evaluation, the most likely value of the stable share price for Epistar possibly fluctuates slightly after April, 2011. Excluding the negative effects from the European Sovereign-debt Crisis that had led to the share price declined below its lower limit.According to the above research result, here suggests the four methods to raise the competitiveness: Strengthen the R&D ability and the strategic alliance, initiate the blue ocean strategy, increase the management efficiency, lower the cost, expand the economic scale, update the product range, and integrate the resources to raise the competitiveness in cost and management. From the viewpoint of Business Valuation, the Discounted Cash Flow Model has the certain accuracy to predict the share price of the LED industry. |
