| 摘要: | 多年來受到關注的能源永續發展相關議題，不外乎永續發展與能源安全、能源管理與效率提升、能源價格與市場開放、能源科技與產業發展、總量管制與排放交易等。為尋求經濟成長與溫室氣體排放脫鉤（decoupling），能源效率與總量管制與排放交易機制是各國亟思突破，促使溫室氣體減量工作朝更有效率的方向前進的重要工具。為評估我國溫室氣體減量策略對於經濟、能源與環境之影響，本研究建構臺灣永續能源發展模型 (Taiwan Sustainable Energy Development, TaiSEND)，並運用於多項能源環境政策評析，該模型屬單國動態之可計算一般均衡 (computable general equilibrium, CGE) 模型，其特色在於可充分描述經濟個體互動、能源技術發展以及能源資源限制對經濟發展之影響。多數國家在制定政策或相關研究在探討能源效率改善所產生之減量效益時，皆以能源密集度 (energy intensity) 或能源生產力 (energy productivity) 做為衡量總體層級的能源效率指標，然而生產力與效率本質上的差異，及單一指標無法離析驅動力來源之問題，使能源生產力不宜用以衡量能源效率變化。為此，本文延伸Feijoo et al. (2002)的方法，提出一個較具優勢的能源效率指標，即以每單位能源用量的實質利潤損失為基準。分析結果顯示，如果以能源生產力做為能源效率的指標，在某些情況下或能適當地反映能源效率的變動情勢，但在某些情況下卻可能帶來不正確的訊息。其次當排放交易被視為減量策略中成本有效之市場工具時，如何決定參與交易個體之排放許可量，須視其邊際減量成本之相對大小而定。相同的邏輯被運用於為達國家排放目標，國內各部門目標年排放核配量的計算上。目前國內推算部門邊際減量成本之方法，可概分為以個別技術減量成本堆疊而成之邊際減量成本曲線，以及以成本有效方式推估之部門邊際減量成本函數，前者忽略市場性因素造成的減量空間，後者則忽略新興技術的發展帶來的減量潛力。本研究利用TaiSEND模型以成本有效方式推估國內各部門邊際減量成本曲線，再利用技術邊際減量成本資料，進一步檢視當考慮技術減量潛力時，對邊際減量成本之影響。結果發現技術邊際減量成本的納入將造成部門間邊際減量成本曲線的旋轉，例如能源與住宅部門將變得更平緩，其他部門變得更陡峭，進而改變部門之排放核配量比重。The important issues of energy sustainable development include energy security, energy management and efficiency, energy prices and market liberalization, energy technology and industrial development, cap-and-trade. To decouple economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency improving and cap-and-trade mechanism are the most important instruments to advanced greenhouse gas abatement.This research established the Taiwan Sustainable Energy Development (TaiSEND) model to assess energy and environmental policies. TaiSEND is a national dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which represents the interaction between economic agents, development of energy technologies, and limitation of energy resources.Energy intensity or energy productivity is the most popular measures of energy efficiency of the country level. But the essentially difference between productivity and efficiency, and without driving force information from a single indicator, make energy productivity inappropriate for energy efficiency. This paper extends the method of Feijoo et al. (2002) and proposes a new energy efficiency indicator, which is calculated from the loss of the energy without allocation and technology efficiency. The results show that the energy productivity would be misleading to present the changes of energy efficiency.On the other hand, the national and sector level marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) need to be determined before the allowances and emission trading, which is a cost efficient abatement instrument. In Taiwan, there are two approaches to estimate sector level marginal abatement cost, which are the technology-based and market-based marginal abatement cost curves. The former one ignores the market effects and the latter one does not account the potential CO2 reduction of innovative technologies. This thesis builds up the market-based MACCs with TaiSEND model, then includes the technology-based marginal abatement cost information. The results present that the MACCs will rotate in different ways inter-sectors under considering the technological reduction costs, such as energy and the residential sector will become gentler, the other sectors become more steep. These outcomes will change the allocation of emissions allowance. |
