| 摘要: | 本論文考慮一個包含本國中間財廠商、外國最終財廠商，且最終財市場位於第三國的垂直相關市場模型。本國上游廠商可採取出口或到外國直接投資的方式供應外國廠商中間財。我們關心本國幣與外國幣間匯率及外國幣與第三國貨幣間的匯率如何影響本國中間財廠商的出口/直接投資決策。我們首先考慮本國廠商直接投資設廠固定成本係完全發生於外國。在此情形下，第三國貨幣片面貶值，可能使原先採取直接投資或出口的本國中間財廠商退出市場，也有可能使原先採取直接投資的本國中間財廠商改採出口策略。本國幣片面貶值，則可能使原先擬採直接投資的本國中間財廠商改採出口策略；原先不擬進入市場的本國中間財廠商，則可能採出口策略來供應中間財。外國幣片面升值時，若本國幣與第三國幣貶值幅度相同，則原擬採直接投資的本國中間財廠商，可能改採出口或直接退出市場；若第三國幣貶值幅度大於本國幣，則原擬採直接投資或出口的本國中間財廠商皆可能會退出市場；也有可能使擬採取直接投資的本國中間財廠商改採出口；反之，若本國幣貶值幅度較第三國幣為大，則原考慮直接投資的本國中間財廠商會因而改採出口或退出市場，而原先未進入市場的本國中間財廠商則有可能會開始出口。最後，本論文也將投資設廠固定成本一般化，即直接投資設廠固定成本也有部分比例來自於本國。此時，大部分結果並未改變，但在本國幣片面貶值時，除了可能使原先擬採直接投資的本國中間財廠商改採出口，或原未進入市場的本國中間財廠商改採出口外，也可能反而使原擬採出口的本國中間財廠商改採直接投資，而原未進入市場的本國中間財廠商也可能採取直接投資。最後，當外國幣貶值造成本國幣較第三國幣貶值幅度較大時，若兩國貨幣貶值的差異不大，則原來考慮直接投資的本國中間財廠商會因而改採出口或退出市場；原未進入市場的本國中間財廠商則有可能會開始出口；反之，當兩國貨幣貶值幅度差異較大時，原先採取直接投資的本國中間財廠商可能改採出口策略，原先採取出口策略的本國中間財廠商也可能因此改採直接投資；原未進入市場的本國中間財廠商也可能開始出口或直接投資。This dissertation considers a vertical market model, concluding a domestic intermediate good firm, foreign final good firm and the final good market locates at the third country. The upstream firm in home country can choose export or foreign direct investment (FDI) to supply intermediate goods. Our main concern is to distinguish the exchange rates among the three countries how to influent the export / FDI strategy of the domestic firm. We first consider that the FDI set-up fixed cost completely emerges in the foreign country. Under this situation, when the third country currency depreciates, the intermediate good firm in home country may choose to exit instead of export or FDI; it also let the intermediate good firm may choose export rather than FDI. When facing home currency depreciates, it let the intermediate good firm in home country may choose export instead of FDI; but the firm taking quitting strategy, it may choose export to supply intermediate good, if the firm never enter market. When foreign currency depreciates, causing home and the third currency fluctuate at the same level, it may let intermediate good firm in home country choose exit or export rather FDI; if home currency depreciates higher than the third, intermediate good firm in home country will exit instead of FDI or export; it might also let intermediate good firm in home country choose export rather than FDI; contrarily, if home currency depreciates smaller than the third, intermediate good firm in home country will choose exit or export rather than FDI, and intermediate good firm in home country will take export strategy if they never enter market. Finally, this dissertation also generalizes the set-up fixed cost. That is the fixed cost containing some proportion coming from home country. At the meantime, the main results don’t change, but when home currency depreciates, except for letting home country choose export instead of FDI, or choose export if they don’t enter market, it might let home country choose FDI rather than export, but if they never enter market, they will choose FDI. When home currency depreciates larger than the third, if their difference is not large, the domestic intermediate good firm will choose export or exit rather than FDI; if they don’t enter market, they’ll choose export; contrarily, if their differences are large enough, it let domestic intermediate good firm may choose export instead of FDI, and intermediate good firm in home country may choose FDI rather than export; intermediate good firm in home country may choose FDI or export if they never enter market at first. |
