本文主要針對台灣的勞動市場狀況，探討景氣對薪資的影響。尤其台灣歷經高等教育快速擴張，大學畢業人數大幅增加，以及近年來全球化等議題，皆可能造成對勞動市場的衝擊，進而改變廠商面對景氣狀況的因應方式。實證方法採用兩階段迴歸分析法(two step regression method)，第一階段採用人力運用資料庫中的個體資料，進行各年度薪資決定方程式的迴歸，以產業產值成長率作為衡量景氣的變數，分析景氣對勞工薪資的邊際影響力。第二階段則以第一階段薪資迴歸方程式中產業產值成長率的估計係數作為被解釋變數，探討薪資對於景氣敏感程度的決定因素分析，並採用可行的一般化最小平方法迴歸分析(the Feasible Generalized Least Squares , FGLS)實證結果發現，整體而言，景氣的盛衰，確實會影響到薪資的成長與否，兩者之間呈現順循環的關係。不過，本文也發現自從1990年代中期開始，台灣的薪資水準對景氣的敏感度有越來越低的趨勢。這個發現隱含著台灣勞動市場呈現薪資僵固的現象；亦即，台灣近十年來薪資成長出現停滯的狀態，而且該現象不分族群，普遍發生於各個勞動市場。再者，依據本文的研究結果發現，造成上述薪資與景氣越來越不相關的原因，主要在於近年來年輕勞動力比例的下降、非薪資成本的上升以及高等教育的擴張措施。技術進步的因素僅適用在部分族群的勞動市場。產業結構變動與名目貨幣供給的影響較不重要。其中，尤以非薪資成本上升的實證結果最為一致，故其應為造成近年來台灣薪資停滯最重要的因素。此或乃由於近幾年來台灣的非薪資報酬比重，受到勞動法規制度變革的影響，呈現大幅度的增加。表示當法定勞動成本受到相關法規改變而增多時(例如可攜式勞退新制的實施)，廠商很可能藉由降低薪資調整幅度的方式因應之，使得台灣的勞動市場出現薪資僵固的情況。This study aims at exploring the influences of business cycle on wage adjustments in Taiwan’s labor market. We employ the Manpower Utilization Survey (MUS) and adopt the two-step regression method for empirical study. In the first step, the individual data from the MUS is used for yearly wage regression with business cycle being measured by the growth rate of the industry that an individual is working at. The coefficient estimate of the industrial growth from the first step is then used for the dependent variable for the second step regression by the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), aiming at investigating the main driving forces behind the long run changes in the business cycle effect.The empirical results show that business cycle did affect wage rates on a pro-cyclical basis, but the effect has gradually diminished since the mid-1990s. This finding implies wage rigidity in Taiwan’s labor market, which is valid for different groups of workers. This phenomenon mainly resulted from the decreasing tendency of young labor force, the rising non-wage costs, and the expansion of higher education with non-wage costs being of the most robust impact across various model specifications and groups of workers. This finding leads to the conclusion that the revision of labor market regulations observed in recent years has imposed some limits on the degree of labor earnings adjustments for Taiwanese employers.
