少子老年化與勞工高學歷化的趨勢突顯出台灣勞動結構與勞動素質之跨世代差異，這些跨世代勞動市場結構的改變對大學薪資報酬率的變化具有不容忽視的影響。依經濟學理論，大學薪資報酬率主要乃決定於相對需求與相對供給，這些供需方面的變化對台灣大學薪資貼水究竟何者較為重要？基於人口結構與各世代可能存在的消費結構改變之衝擊，勞動相對供需的變化是否也存在極大的世代差異呢？於報章雜誌上，吾人甚而經常聽聞所謂「大學文憑貶值」的說法，究竟這些說法的可信度有多高呢？大學報酬率的降低是否即代表年輕世代高學歷勞動品質之降低呢？本計畫擬以三年期間分別探討上述諸議題。第一年著重於探討各世代高低學歷相對需求與相對供給的變化，以離析出各世代大學教育報酬率的影響因素，進而明瞭此變動的主要衝擊來源。基於生育率的劇降，世代規模極可能透過所謂供給創造需求的效果，對各世代之大學報酬率產生長期的影響，吾人也將之納入世代規模效果分析。第二年計畫之重點則在於分析各世代間是否存在不同的撿選效果(sorting effect)現象，使得高學歷勞工被招聘至技術進步較快的產業之現象。吾人擬以主計處「人力資源調查資料」建立一個擬世代時間序列-橫斷面資料(cohort pseudo-panel data)，並以計量模型分析各世代間是否存在這樣一個效果、此撿選效果的世代差異對大學薪資溢酬差異的影響，以及進行此撿選效果決定因素之分析。第三年則著重於世代品質差異之分析（cohort quality differential），以及世代品質差異對於各世代大學薪資報酬之影響。除修改文獻計算出各世代的勞工品質(cohort quality) 外，並擬提出新的世代品質設算方法。接著，將世代教育品質變數加入大學薪資溢酬模型，以分別考慮世代高學歷相對供給數量與相對品質改變對大學薪資報酬的影響。因此，此三年期的計畫的主要目的在於回答下列問題：大學薪資貼水的改變是否由世代相對供給或相對需求的改變所造成？老年少子化的人口結構對大學薪資貼水究竟扮演何種角色？大學文憑是否已經貶值？年輕世代高學歷勞動品質是否已經降低？換言之，於老年少子化趨勢下，本研究擬著重於大學薪資報酬與高學歷勞工品質的世代差異分析。透過這些實證，吾人希望可以提供相關政策如人口政策、科技政策與教育政策擬定或修定時之依據與參考。 ; Low fertility has led Taiwanese structural change. The substantial increases in the relative supply of highly educated labor since late 1990 further induce the significant cohort difference in the labor market structure, particularly the college wage premium among cohorts. Except for the changes in relative supply, what does the role of relative demand play on the differentials of cohort college wage premium? How would the declining in the cohort size affect the above premium? Is there any significant variation in cohort quality between the younger and older cohorts? These are the main focus of the three-year project. In the first year, we will first focus on the contribution of the changes in relative supply and relative demand of college workers on the wage premium with particular emphasis on the causes of the change. We will also investigate the likelihood of so called “supply creates its own demand＂ issue as well as the issue of cohort size effect. In the second year, we will move our attention onto the sorting effect in the sense that we aim to figure out if there exists sorting effect such that highly educated workers are more likely to be sorted to industries of relatively high degree of skill-biased technological change. Under such circumstance, the sorting effect would have push up college wage premium. The main goal of the third year project is on the impact of cohort labor quality. We will first modify a measure of cohort quality proposed in the literature. A second measure of cohort quality will also be created in this project. These two measures will then be included one at a time to the wage premium equation, which enables us to distinguish the cohort quality effect and the cohort quantity effect such that we are able to answer whether the quality of younger cohort has been depreciated. It is hoped that, through this research project, more research interests can be drawn from the academics on this emerging and important trend and the research results from this research project can also be served as a good reference for policy makers in promoting Taiwan’s sustainable development. ; 研究期間 9708 ~ 9807
