| 摘要: | 本文探討並分析政府於2011年奢侈稅實施前與實施後，房價的波動情形，並希望籍此了解奢侈稅的實施，是否有達到打房成效，對於房價價格是否有壓抑效果﹖本研究的迴歸分析，以信義房屋指數為研究樣本，探討自1998年至2012年第三季期間中，台北市、新北市、台中市、高雄市及台灣地區房價指數之走勢，並且檢視總體經濟變數及奢侈稅對於房價變化的解釋能力。經由實證的模型分析結果，得到以下結論:一. 迴歸模型之聯合檢定實證結果顯示，奢侈稅並無達到打房成效，僅讓房價漲幅趨緩，其中台中市及高雄市房價完全不受影響，漲幅更劇，台北市、新北市及台灣地區房價則因奢侈稅的實施減緩房價漲幅。
二. 以總體經濟變數來解釋房價，僅股價指數及利率對房價較有解釋效果，又以利率解釋效果最為顯著。
三. 總體經濟變數中消費者信心指數、通貨膨脹率、國民所得、核發建築執照數、貨幣供給對房價，均無顯著解釋能力。
This study aims to investigate and analyze how the luxury tax started in 2011 affects housing prices in Taiwan. In particular, we are interested to understand whether the implementation of the luxury tax leads to a deflating effect on house prices. Under the framework of regression analysis, this thesis uses the data of the Lutheran Housing index from 1998Q1 to 2012Q3, covering the areas of Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung, Kaohsiung and Taiwan cities. We also study the effect of macroeconomic variables on house prices.
We have the following conclusions from the empirical results:I. Within the framework of regression analysis, the results of join test show that, the luxury tax has no negative effect on house prices, as expected by the government. The levy of the luxury tax only makes the up-trend in prices slow down. In particular, there is no effect on house prices in the area of Taichung and Kaohsiung, and the house prices stay moving up in areas of Taipei and New Taipei after the implementation of the luxury tax. In average, the house prices in Taiwan keep rising after the implementation of the luxury tax.
II. Among all macroeconomic variables considered in this analysis, stock market index and interest rates have the most significant explanatory power for the change in house prices.
III. The other macroeconomic variables we consider, including the consumer confidence index, inflation rate, per capita income, the number of building permits issued, and the money supply, are not significantly related to house prices in Taiwan. |
