本文建立一個三國兩廠商的出口競爭模型，在模型中，本國廠商和外國廠商分別為不同國 家且生產成本不對稱之廠商，其中兩家廠商可能選擇各自在國內生產，或是本國廠商可能選擇 進行外人直接投資、和外國廠商同在外國生產，生產同質產品並同時全數出口到第三國市場從 事數量競爭，藉以討論「匯率」對廠商採取直接出口或直接投資決策的影響。 本文的主要發現如下。首先，在本國與外國間資金非完全管制的情況下，本國貨幣若貶值， 將導致本國廠商到外國直接投資的生產成本增加，使得本國廠商較無誘因至外國直接投資。相 對地，在本國與外國間資金管制傾向完全流動的情況下，本國貨幣若貶值，加上兩國間生產成 本差距夠大，則將導致本國廠商出口競爭力上升的效果大於因貶值所致生產成本增加的效果， 使得本國廠商仍有誘因到外國直接投資。其次，在本國與外國間資金管制較為嚴格的情況下， 外國貨幣若貶值，將導致本國廠商較無誘因至外國直接投資；在本國與外國間資金管制較為寬 鬆的情況下，外國貨幣貶值對本國廠商至外國直接投資決策的影響，須視兩國間生產成本之差 距及僱用兩國生產要素比例之多寡而定。最後，在資金管制較為寬鬆的情況下，若本國與外國 間生產成本差距夠大且僱用外國生產要素比例偏高，則無論本國貨幣或外國貨幣貶值，皆會增 加本國廠商到外國直接投資生產的意願。 This paper establishes a three-country, two-firm model of export competition to discuss “exchange rate”how to affect the firms whether to engage in foreign direct investment (FDI) or not. In the model, we assume a domestic firm and a foreign firm which are located in different countries and whose marginal costs are asymmetrical. In respect of production, there are two decisions which may be adopted by the domestic firm. The first one is direct export which means each firm will produce products in their own countries and the second one is foreign direct investment which means the domestic firm will produce in the foreign country to lower its production cost. After producing homogeneous products, the two firms simultaneously export their own products to the third-country market and compete in a Cournot fashion. The major findings of the paper are as follows: First, if devaluation occurs in domestic country with incomplete capital control, it will enhance the production cost in the foreign country. This may cause that domestic firm isn’t interested in engaging in foreign direct investment. On the other hand, if devaluation occurs in the domestic country with lightly capital control and the difference of production costs between domestic and foreign firms are much larger, it may cause that domestic firm is still interested in foreign direct investment. This is due to the increment of export competition is larger than the increment of production cost. Second, if devaluation occurs in the foreign country with strict capital control, it may cause that domestic firm isn’t interested in foreign direct investment
on the contrary, if devaluation occurs in the foreign country with lightly capital control, the effect of devaluation in the foreign country will depend on the difference of production costs and the ratio of factors of production between the two firms. Finally, with lightly capital control, if there are a larger difference of production costs and a higher ratio of foreign-owned factors of production between the domestic and foreign firms, it will increase the interest of the domestic firm to engage in foreign direct investment no matter the devaluation occurs in the domestic or foreign country.
