| 摘要: | 過去數十年間，受到全球化與經濟自由化趨勢的影響，國際經濟環境遭逢巨變。在此時代巨輪變遷的過程中，除了為許多國家帶來前所未有的發展機會與挑戰，同時也衍生出諸多值得深入探究的經濟現象與課題。本論文之要旨，即透過詳細的觀察、整理與歸納大量統計數據，經由嚴謹的計量模型估計，系統性地針對三個當今廣受討論的國際經濟議題進行實證研究。
議題一分析人民幣升值對中國貿易順差的影響。中國自1978年實施改革開放以來，透過大量釋放出低廉的生產要素（土地、勞動），結合『偏低』的匯率政策，吸引外國資金投資，成就其經濟發展，並累積出數量驚人的貿易盈餘。
近年有論者將全球金融危機歸究於偏低的人民幣匯率所導致的全球貿易失衡，進而倡議中國應進行幣值重估，以協助矯正世界貿易結構。有趣的是，人民幣匯率在2005年到2009年間，每年平均升值幅度達4.4%，惟中國貿易順差仍持續累積。此現象令人好奇人民幣升值是否對減少中國順差的效果有限，甚或人民幣匯率並非改善全球貿易失衡的關鍵？
議題一整理中國與其前49大貿易對手國的商品進出口統計，並根據聯合國商品分類系統（BEC System）將商品析分成三大類：原物料、中間財、最終財，藉以分析人民幣升值對不同財貨之影響。研究發現，中國三大出口商品對匯率的敏感程度大於進口。匯率升值除了減少中國出口，其中間財進口需求也將因出口下降而減少，從而抵銷部份匯率升值對順差的抑制效果。此外，中國內需規模對於改善順差的效果明顯，顯示中國經濟轉型實為改善全球貿易失衡不可或缺的因素。
議題二驗證產業內貿易發展程度與勞動市場雇用變化之間的關係。有別於李嘉圖比較利益理論的預測，近十來年受到新興國家加入全球生產供應鏈的行列，以及運輸、通訊成本降低的影響，全球產業內貿易發展快速。根據『平滑調整假說』(Smooth Adjustment Hypothesis, SAH)，倘若一國的貿易型態偏重於產業內貿易，則其生產要素的投入波動受到貿易的衝擊將小於產業間貿易。
議題二利用聯合國『商品與行業』對照表，自行編算台灣製造業進出口貿易資料，並整理相對應的勞動雇用統計，檢視『平滑調整假說』是否成立。台灣是小型開放經濟體，目前正積極投身區域經濟整合的行列。身為全球生產供應鏈的重要成員，此議題對於參與經濟整合時的衝擊影響分析具有重要的參考價值。
研究結果發現，產業內貿易程度愈高確實有助於減少勞動雇用量的波動程度。專業技術人員在產業內所占的雇用比例愈高，則該產業的勞動雇用波動程度也愈低。值得一提的是，根據本研究實證結果，貿易開放程度並不影響台灣製造業的雇用變化，顯示政府在制訂貿易政策時，產業的貿易發展型態（而非貿易開放程度）應是重要的決策考量。
議題三嘗試辨認出哪些因素影響廠商在三種不同出口行為的績效表現：出口市場數、產品數及產品品質。受惠於經濟全球化的影響，許多新興國家不約而同採取『出口導向』策略作為經濟發展的主軸戰略。在出口導向經濟發展模式的初期，充份有效地利用國內生產要素以促進出口量的快速成長是重要的特徵。然而，伴隨著後進新興國家加入市場賽局，早發新興經濟體便無法確保在要素價格上擁有永久的絕對優勢。因此，如何藉由提升產業出口能力及產品品質，以增加產業附加價值便成為永續發展的關鍵。
議題三合併中國海關貿易庫及中國中大型企業調查資料，嘗試找出影響中國電子業廠商出口行為表現的決定因素。研究結果發現，總要素生產力、廠齡及融資能力等三項因素，對於廠商在上述三種出口表現具有正向顯著的影響力；總要素生產力愈高、廠齡較大，以及融資能力較佳的廠商，愈有能力經營較多的海外市場、出口較多高品質的產品。而廠商規模及資本密集程度對於廠商出口行為的影響力較不一致；規模較大的廠商，具有經營較多市場及出口較多產品的能力，然而它對於出口產品品質的影響則不一定。此外，資本密集度僅對廠商出口市場數具有顯著影響，對於出口產品數及產品品質則不具影響力。
如前所述，廠商的融資能力影響其出口績效表現。因此，對於像中國一樣的新興經濟體而言，健全國內金融環境，使廠商在營運資金的取得及調度上不致成為其經營侷限，是採取出口導向發展策略的新興國家在政策上可著力之處。
This dissertation is organized by three essays attempting to empirically explore issues regarding international economics. We aim to clarify the following questions: (1) Does RMB revaluation have limited effect on China’s trade surplus? (2) Does the growth of intra-industry trade pattern indeed lower the labor market variation in Taiwanese manufacturing industries? (3) What determines firm’s performance in shipping to more oversea markets, selling more products, and exporting product of higher quality?
The first essay examines the influence of the RMB variation on trades of primary, intermediate, and final goods between China and its 49 major trading partners. The empirical result shows that China’s exports are more sensitive to exchange rate than imports. Among the results, we find a counterintuitive one that an RMB appreciation will reduce China's intermediate goods imports. This finding, along with the other one that the final goods exports, the major source of the surplus, are not sensitive to exchange rate change, are probably the main reasons why the RMB appreciation has limited effect on restraining China’s rising surplus. To deal with the trade imbalance issue between China and its partners, other than the RMB revaluation, our estimation results suggest that China needs to also speed its economic transformation from export-led to domestic-oriented model.
The second essay investigates the relationship between intra-industry trade (IIT) expansion and labor market adjustment in Taiwan. We adopt a panel dataset containing detailed employment information and utilize various measures of labor market adjustment to conduct empirical estimations. After controlling for industry-specific effects and the structure of occupational composition, the empirical results demonstrate that IIT expansion does have a smoothing effect on labor market adjustment. In addition, industries with abundant skilled workers experience lower employment adjustment costs.
The final essay explores what kinds of exporters perform better in three aspects: export to more destinations, export more varieties of products, and export products of higher quality. Using a comprehensive firm-level panel data of China’s electronics industry during 2003-2006 which is compiled from firm survey and Custom dataset, this study provides, one of the first systematically studies, the firm-level panel evidence to deal with this issue. We find that firm productivity matters not only in the two extensive margins in export destinations and varieties of products as expected, but in export quality, so far novel in the existing heterogeneous-firm trade literature. Moreover, exporters’ financing ability is found to be influential in all three aspects of performance. To deal with the sample selection as well as endogenous problems, we adopt also various datasets and variable measurement to implement empirical estimations. Most evidences support the importance of productivity on export performance. |
