未來研究方法論配適前瞻分析流程之物件導向塑模; Fitting Future Research Methodology in Object-Oriented Modeled Foresight Analysis Process

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Title:	未來研究方法論配適前瞻分析流程之物件導向塑模;Fitting Future Research Methodology in Object-Oriented Modeled Foresight Analysis Process
Authors:	周舜青;Chou,Shun-Ching
Contributors:	資訊管理學系
Keywords:	前瞻;未來研究方法論;馬可夫鏈;物件導向塑模;foresight;future research methodology;Markov chains;object-oriented modeling
Date:	2013-07-24
Issue Date:	2013-08-22 12:10:53 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	近年來由於科學技術的蓬勃發展，加速了各國之間資訊傳遞的速度，同時也帶動了全球化與國際化的現象，面對這樣變化快速的環境，各國政府陸續展開前瞻研究以準備面對未來可能的變化。本研究嘗試綜整分析各個未來研究方法，結合前瞻分析與策略規劃等相關管理概念，建立前瞻平台架構以幫助前瞻研究者進行未來研究，並針對前瞻平台的分析階段配適概念相符的未來研究方法，再以物件導向軟體開發的技術，建構前瞻平台分析階段的物件導向模型，以供系統開發者進行實作，使前瞻研究能夠模組化與系統化，期望能藉此降低前瞻研究執行之複雜度。本研究結合前瞻、未來研究方法論及策略規劃與管理等相關理論學說，提出一套前瞻平台架構，共分成分析、規劃及評核三個階段。分析階段主要目的是分析出各種未來可能的發展情境，提供規劃階段進行願景擬定與策略規劃，評核階段則是在分析階段與規劃階段的執行過程中，使用動態校準的方式來驗證一致性，以面對長時效的前瞻研究。綜合以上論述，本研究具體貢獻為建構前瞻平台架構；針對發展前瞻平台的分析階段，依據各流程配適適合的未來研究方法，建立前瞻平台分析階段各流程之執行步驟；透過建立前瞻平台分析階段之虛擬碼，呈現前瞻平台分析階段執行步驟之演算法邏輯設計概念；利用物件導向軟體開發技術，建構前瞻平台分析階段的物件導向模型，使前瞻研究能夠系統化與模組化。 In recent years, the development of science and technology accelerates the speed of information transmission among countries, also led to the phenomenon of globalization and internationalization. To face such rapidly changing environment, governments started to work on foresight studies. First, the platform of foresight framework is attempted to be established to help foresight researchers conducting further research. Second, future research methodology was fitted to the analysis stage of the platform. Finally, object-oriented model of the analysis stage of the platform was constructed, so that foresight studies can be systematized and modularized to reduce the implementation complexity. Foresight, future research methodology and strategic planning and related management theories are combined to proposed the platform of foresight framework, which is divided into analysis, planning and evaluation stages. The purpose of the analysis stage is to analyze various future scenarios to provide the planning stage to establish vision and strategic planning, dynamic calibration is used in evaluation stage to verify the consistency of the analysis and planning stages. The specific contribution of the study is constructing the platform of foresight framework fitting the appropriate future research methodologies to the analysis stage of the platform and establishing the steps of the analysis stage of the platform creating the pseudo code of the analysis stage of the platform to demonstrate the algorithms and logic of data flow constructing object-oriented model of the analysis stage of the platform so that foresight studies can be systematized and modularized.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Information Management] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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