研究期間：10208~10307;This project will use the WRF meteorological model to generate 20-40 ensemble members, which include perturbations on typhoon bogusing scheme, precipitation parameterization, and planetary boundary parameterization. The forecasted rainfalls from the WRF model will be used to drive a distributed hydrological model to predict the discharge and water stage over a target watershed. Forecast verifications for the WRF model prediction include the typhoon track error, rainfall prediction error on the Taiwan Island, and rainfall prediction error on the target watershed. Forecast verifications for the hydrological model include the predicted water-stage and discharge error with observed rainfall as an input, and the predicted water-stage and discharge error with predicted rainfall. Another key issue in this proposal is to investigate the impact of rainfall forecast uncertainty on the runoff prediction.
