| 摘要: | 「非現金交易」不是創新的概念，但卻是市場交易發展必然的趨勢。
從歷史的沿革及消費者的觀點來看，自遠古的以物易物到行之有年的現金
交易，至現下常用的塑膠貨幣，再到日漸熱門的移動貨幣，背後的意涵，
不外乎尋求簡易且安全的交易方式；從經濟學的角度來看，現下的自由經
濟市場逐漸步入成熟階段，在產業自由競爭的狀況下，所能獲得的毛利亦
隨之下降，從而進入所謂的「微利時代」。在微利時代終將成為未來經濟
市場常態的狀況下，金融或財政決策機構亦將偏好非現金交易，因為透過
利率的控制便能制衡通貨緊縮，毋需使用印製鈔票等諸如美國採用的「量
化寬鬆」政策，不僅節省鈔票印製成本，此舉更使交易的過程得以被監控，
甚而減少犯罪弊端。
非現金交易的時代是可以預見的，然而，「非現金交易最終將如何實
現？」卻是人類社會仍在尋求解答的問題。以目前可預測的眼光來看，或
許結合智慧辨識技術，是可能的解答之一：試想未來可能的交易認證模式，
可能是透過行動裝置，或是利用裝飾品如項鍊、手環或者是手錶，甚或是
指紋、臉型及虹膜等生物特徵。經由整理交易及各種形式貨幣等之歷史沿
革，並分析統整世界各國的發展現狀，本研究認為未來十年內可能實現的
非現金交易模式，乃以智慧辨識技術為認證基礎，並結合行動裝置進行支
付。本研究亦針對台灣，分析在推動非現金交易可能遇到的瓶頸，並以其
他國家的成功經驗做為借鏡，提出比較和分析。然而，本研究認為，科技
發展或能提供技術上的資源，但萬流歸宗，金融機構及政府在提倡非現金
交易的同時，應時時回顧市場交易的趨勢，非現金交易的終極展示，乃是
實踐「絕對」簡便且安全的交易。; “Cashless Society” is an inevitable urge, rather than a fancy concept.
Historically, from consumers' perspective, the desire to move away from
conventional monetary systems is pronounced. The realm of pursuing an
efficient and secure trading system is clearly evident from the progression of the
monetary system: from the barter economy to the notes-and-coins cash monetary
systems, credit/debits card (aka the plastic money), and the widely discussed
mobile money systems. As a consequence of free market economy, the
economical system is now entering the so-called micro-profit era, where the
business environment is facing an intense competition in price and return. In
accommodation with this transition, most governments and financial departments
would also prefer a cashless society for the following reasons: Recessions and
deflation may be alleviated through regulation of interest rates, rather than the
Quantitative Easing (QE) undertaken by US, or other questionable innovations;
Cashless trading would not only reduce the production cost associated with paper
notes, but would also empower criminal suppression by allowing governments to
track all transactions electronically.
It is therefore a foreseeable trend to go cashless. However, how to implement
safe and efficient cashless trading is still a question mark. One conceivable
solution, with the state-of-art, may be through the integration of intelligent
identification: possible intermediates to advocate adequate security may be
through a smartphone, necklace, bracelet, watch, or biological features, such as
fingerprint, facial feature and eye iris. Speculating that smartphone combining
intelligent identification being the most likely cashless scheme in the coming
decade, this study shows the trend by summarizing the evolution of monetary
system in the world. This study also discusses the potential problems and
solutions when promoting cashless trading in Taiwan, based on other countries'
experience. Although technology development may help lay the groundwork
toward cashless society, it is of particular note that the ultimate cashless utopian,
is an “absolutely” secure and efficient trading system free of any intermediates. |
