Three essays on China's regional economic analysis

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Title:	Three essays on China's regional economic analysis
Authors:	徐慶柏;Hsu,Ching-po
Contributors:	經濟學系
Keywords:	空間計量;勞動市場;空間共整合;地方政府效率;生產效率;財政效率;Beveridge Curve;spatial econometrics;spatial conitegration;DEA
Date:	2014-01-17
Issue Date:	2014-04-02 15:46:35 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	近20年中國持續維持經濟的高速發展，然而快速的發展也導致許多負面影響，諸如區域發展的不均、勞動市場、產業結構的失衡、重複建設與資源無法有效利用等問題。本研究針對中國近年勞動市場概況與地方政府管理績效進行剖析。本研究分成三個議題，首先針對勞動市場之失業與職缺的變化進行討論，並藉由估計Blanchard and Diamond(1989)所提出之Beveridge Curve推論中國勞動力市場在快速發展下是否存在失衡現象。為求獲得可信的估計結果，本文考慮區域間經濟活動的非獨立性，以及時間序列特性等問題而採用Spatial Panel Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SPSUR model)進行模型的估計。研究結果指出中國的Beveridge Curve並非每個觀察年度都存在，唯存在的年度亦顯示曲線外移的現象，這結果充分證實中國勞動市場存在失衡的現象。延續前一子議題，本研究運用spatial cointegration model進一步分析Beveridge Curve的穩定性，該模型建立在勞動市場的調整並非只在時間緯度上，若同一段時間下不同區域間存在收斂現象，將加速整體收斂速度；換句話說，區域性結構調整問題，應同時考慮時間與空間這兩個緯度的調整過程。子議題研究結果指出，失業率與職缺負向關係僅在短期間存在，而長期下並不存在。在討論完中國勞動市場問題後，另一個有趣的議題是，中國地方政府營運績效的表現。本研究以生產與福利的角度來衡量政府績效，藉由估計中國各地方政府生產效率與財政效率，並導入多因素多產出的DEA模型以進行分析。研究結果發現，無論是生產或財政效率之估計，皆須考慮非意欲產出的存在，否則將高估效率的表現。從2000-2010年間資料所獲得的估計結果指出，中國財政效率相對生產效率來說表現是較為穩定的；而就沿岸與非沿岸地區效率的表現來看，一如預期，沿岸之生產效率高於非沿岸地區，而就財政效率來看，沿岸與非沿岸地區地方政府效率之表現相仿。除此之外，本研究發現地方政府生產效率呈現逐年遞減趨勢，而財政效率則是呈現微幅遞增之勢。; China's economic has grown rapidly in recent two decades. The issues related to China are at most of time interest the professionals associated with different fields. This thesis is thus composed of three essays focusing on China. Chapter 2 has two purposes. The first one is to examine the relationship between unemployment and job vacancy in China, a rapid developing country. Second, we study the movements of Beveridge curve in China. Since the estimation without considering the issue of spatial dependency can result in unstable parameter estimates and therefore yield unreliable statistical inferences, a Spatial Panel Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SPSUR model) is adopted in this chapter. The results conclude that the relationship between the unemployment rate and vacancy rate does not always exist. We also find that the Beveridge curve in China shifts outwards in recent years. Chapter 3, by applying the spatial cointegration model to the Beveridge curve, we find support for spatial cointegration between unemployment and job opening. In addition, the negative relationship between the job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate exists only in the short run. The government efficiency is another vital factor that dominates the development of China. Hence, chapter 4 investigates regional government's operating efficiency in China and uses two measures to evaluate the performance of local governments. The empirical estimates derived from the province-level panel data that covers the time span between 2000 and 2010 show that the financial efficiency in China is moderate, but productive efficiency is not. As for the distribution of productive efficiency scores across regions, the coastal regions, as expected, experience better performance in productive efficiency than their non-coastal counterparts, suggesting the existence of an efficiency gap between the coastal and non-coastal regions. In addition, non-coastal regions exhibit a weekly decreasing trend on local government productive efficiency whereas the coastal regions behave reversely. The coastal regions show a weekly increasing trend on local government financial efficiency.
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