本文以OLS建構人造纖維供需模型，並模擬纖維產量、價格、原料與產業利用率等，使用資料期間為2000年第一季至2008年第三季的季資料，以美國需求資訊、中國聚酯纖維產業鏈及尼龍纖維產業鏈供給資訊做實證模型，據以推論與纖維產業外生性發展。 研究結果發現，在纖維需求方面，影響尼龍及聚酯纖維需求最大來自經濟動能GDP及油價，皆具統計上的顯著性，而聚酯價格、尼龍價格對尼龍及聚酯纖維需求為負向不顯著關係。GDP與服飾需求為正相關，且統計顯著，經濟的成長GDP的提高，帶動紡織等民生相關工業的興盛，對紡織業上游之人纖業之需求有所助益，全球人纖之需求量將隨經濟成長與呈現成長。 纖維產能實證結果顯示，油價與聚酯產能呈負向顯著關係，時間趨勢對聚酯產能成顯著正向關係，意涵人纖產業上的技術成長帶動產量的擴充。纖維產能利用率的實證結果可以看出，纖維產能利用率與前期的產能利用率為統計正向的顯著關係。 聚酯價格實證結果顯示當期聚酯價格將受前一期聚酯價格所決定。另外，PTA對聚酯價格變動的影響，為正向關係且統計顯著。尼龍價格受前期價格、原料CPL的正向影響。纖維原料實證結果發現，油價與下游石化原料CPL、MEG、PTA價格連動性很高。 模擬預測分析2009年，除了經濟動能縮減需求量之外，產能過剩將會下修產業的產能利用率。 ;The purpose of this research is to analyze effects of oil price fluctuation on man-made fiber industry. Our model incorporates with the US apparel demand and the China man-made fiber supply with quarterly data from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2008. Empirical results show that GDP and oil price have significant influence on the man-made fiber industry; however, fiber price has been statistically insignificant to fiber demand. GDP has high correlation to apparel demand, which drives the fiber output. Besides, oil price was found in negative correlation to polyester capacity; and current fiber utilization rate is statistically significant related to previous utilization rate. The rising oil prices are indicative of the reduced availability of a basic input to production. Oil prices have an impact on fiber market through raw material chains, leading to price hike on raw material price (CPL, PTA, MEG). A scenario modeling on fiber market indicates that as economy is going to the recession period in 2009, and oil price assumes in 5 years-record low. We estimate reducing demand and overcapacity will further drag down the fiber utilization rate.
