決策的本質-由古巴危機談台灣E銀行危機

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题名:	決策的本質-由古巴危機談台灣E銀行危機
作者:	夏振華;Hsia,Chen-hua
贡献者:	管理學院高階主管企管碩士班
关键词:	古巴危機;官僚政治模式;決策的本質;理性模式;組織行為模式;銀行危機;bureaucratic politics(governmental politics);essence of decision;financial crisis;organizational behavior;Cuban missile crisis,rational
日期:	2009-05-18
上传时间:	2014-05-08 15:34:22 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	西元1962年西方世界發生幾乎引爆第三次世界大戰的古巴危機，當時美、蘇二大強權競相透過在盟國部署飛彈引發了核武競賽，危及人類生存，最後在美國甘迺迪總統與蘇聯共產黨總書記赫魯雪夫的政治運作下才化解了危機。哈佛大學教授Graham T. Allison博士即透過理性模式、組織行為模式、政治模式的觀點，完整分析美、蘇雙方處理古巴危機的過程。由於金融機構已經無法避免微利時代的來臨，因此金融機構承受風險的能力愈形薄弱，決策的精準度更顯得極為重要。金融機構的環境相對於其他企業而言更顯得封閉，其組織政治現象更明顯，當組織目標與個人目標發生矛盾時，高階主管的決策是否捨棄個人的因素而成就組織利益的最大化？此外銀行從業人員如何正確解讀與評價主管決策的本質，深入了解主管的內心世界，攸關個人職場生涯。然而體察上意，為「主子」分憂解勞的同時，亦需考量其後果是否已超越了個人所能承擔的法律責任？本研究採用質性研究方法，藉由與個案有關之高階主管與專業人士之深度訪談及相關文獻之蒐集，依循Allison（1971）闡述古巴危機的三個決策模式，輔以組織政治知覺、賽局理論、抉擇基本架構的探討及金融弊案實例，分析銀行高階主管處理危機時的決策的本質及從業人員應對之道。本研究發現，政治行為確實存在於個案銀行的組織中，組織成員的政治知覺左右了對資訊的解讀與判斷，也引導了自己的決策，更進一步影響了資訊的傳遞，並與組織正常的運作與績效息息相關。組織決策過程運用諸如：賽局理論、線性分析、統計歸納甚至財務模型……等理性模式並不能適當的詮釋組織決策的意涵。決策者必需了解組織裡面每一個體的情緒面與政治面，正確解讀事件的本質或組織成員間隱藏著的政治動機；此外組織內的成員也要能夠正確解讀決策者內心不為人知的想法，才不會事倍功半甚至做出踰越個人所能承擔責任的判斷而誤蹈法網。 ;In the early 1960s a crisis occurred in the Western world. The United States objected when the Soviet Union placed nuclear missiles in Cuba, an allied country. The conflict initiated a nuclear weapons competition, which almost endangered human survival. American President John F. Kennedy, Secretary General U Thant, and the Soviet Union diffused the crises through political negotiations. Harvard University Professor Dr. Graham T. Allison analyzed the event and analyzed how the U.S. government and the Soviet Union handled the problem from rational, organizational, and political models. Though financial institutions cannot avoid a meager profit, they are weak and cannot withstand the risk. Therefore, accurate policy-making appears to be of great importance. Contrary to other enterprises, financial institutions appear more enclosed and its political undertones are more obvious. When organizations aim to resolve a problem, however, can the decision of the managers benefit the institution regardless of their personal biases? Also, how do the job holders explain and appraise the essence of decision-making correctly? By conducting a qualitative research plan, I attempt to analyze the essence of the decision-making process by bank managers when they confront a financial crisis and the reactions of jobholders. Through methods such as personal interviews with managers and Allison´s (1971) three decision models, I consider the consciousness of political organization, match bureau theory, discuss choice-basic construction, and examine financial shortcomings. It is argued that political behavior truly exists in bank organization. The political consciousness of bank members does impact the understanding and judgments of information. Theories such as Game Theory、Linear Regression Analysis、Statistical Induction or Financial Modeling cannot find a good solution to this dilemma. Decision-makers need to understand the emotional and political aspect of each individual in the organization to correctly interpret the political motives of society members. Other members of society should understand the decision-makers to avoid wasted effort and decisions that are beyond one’s responsibility.
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