工資僵固與雙率政策法則─台灣動態隨機一般均衡模型分析;Wage Rigidity and Two Policy Rules - a DSGE analysis for Taiwan

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Title:	工資僵固與雙率政策法則─台灣動態隨機一般均衡模型分析;Wage Rigidity and Two Policy Rules - a DSGE analysis for Taiwan
Authors:	張凱力;Chang,Kai-Li
Contributors:	經濟學系
Keywords:	動態隨機一般均衡模型;小型開放經濟體系;工資僵固;衝擊反應函數;DSGE model;small open economy;wage rigidity;impulse response function
Date:	2014-06-25
Issue Date:	2014-08-11 18:36:47 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本文以Escudé(2013)的模型為基本架構，建立了一個小型開放經濟體系的動態隨機一般均衡模型，我們將透過本模型，利用貝式估計法來估計台灣重要的結構參數與政策參數，並透過衝擊反應函數來觀察國際情勢變化、政府支出增加等衝擊所帶來的影響，最後我們會比較有工資僵固性與無工資僵固性模型之間的優劣。　　本文所採用的資料期間為1992年第一季至2013年第四季，結果我們發現台灣的工資以及物價僵固性都較國外文獻以歐美地區為實證的研究為短，表示台灣的經濟環境對於價格變動上較有彈性，應該與台灣為小型開放經濟體系有關。在政策參數方面，通貨膨脹缺口反應係數在名目利率法則中大於名目匯率貶值率法則，而產出缺口正好相反，表示央行面對兩種缺口時，偏好採用的政策法則有所不同，而有工資僵固的模型表現能力也較無工資僵固的好。最後，我們透過衝擊反應函數來觀察國際無風險利率、政府支出等外生衝擊，對於台灣經濟有何影響。;We create a small open economy using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model, which is built on Escudé(2012), and use this model to estimate some important parameters by Bayesian estimation. We also use this model to observe how exogenous shocks influence Taiwan′s economy. Compared with the original model, we add wage rigidity which is a common design in a DSGE model and a new production function. The result finds that the nominal price and wage rigidity in Taiwan are more flexible than Euro area. Taiwan′s central bank prefers to use nominal interest rule to reduce the inflation gap, and adopts nominal exchange rate to decrease the output gap. In the end,by using impulse response function (IRF), we can know how the increase of some factors such as international risk-free rate and government expenditure influences Taiwan′s economy.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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