美國量化寬鬆政策對金融市場及商品市場的影響;The Effect of The U.S. Policy of Quantitative Easing on The Financial Markets and Commodity Markets

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Title:	美國量化寬鬆政策對金融市場及商品市場的影響;The Effect of The U.S. Policy of Quantitative Easing on The Financial Markets and Commodity Markets
Authors:	林家慶;Lin,Chia-ching
Contributors:	財務金融學系
Keywords:	量化寬鬆政策;金融市場;商品市場
Date:	2014-07-04
Issue Date:	2014-10-15 15:29:17 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	2008年美國金融危機發生後，為了解決金融危機所產生流動性不足的問題，美聯儲除了連續調降利率外，也實施多種貨幣政策因應，惟實施成效不佳，最終在2008年11月為了提振經濟成長、有效的控制通膨並降低失業率，開始實施量化寬鬆的貨幣政策。然而從美國所釋出的大量資金，卻湧入投資報酬率相對較高的金融市場及商品市場，造成全球市場的動盪。本研究以論述的方式分析美國實施量化寬鬆政策期間，對經濟數據及金融市場與商品市場影響。因此，本研究著重於從2008年9月15日雷曼兄弟宣佈破產開始至2013年12月18日美聯儲宣佈現行量化寬鬆政策開始緩退為止的期間變化。研究結果發現：美國量化寬鬆政策有先行反應的效應存在，並隨著執行次數增加而呈現遞減的效果，且在退場後，效應的延續性並不明顯。此外量化寬鬆政策對於經濟數據的改善雖有著正面的助挹，但得歷經一段長時間後才漸有成效。另在實施期間也造成美元走跌，債券殖利率下降，各國面臨貨幣升值的壓力及金融市場與商品市場指數的大漲，然而在全球經濟景氣尚未完全復甦的情況下，資產將存在著泡沫的疑慮，對未來經濟發展將帶來一定程度上的風險。 ;After the U.S. financial crisis in 2008, for solving the problem of illiquidity, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) implemented various monetary policies, including cutting interest rates continuously. The implement of monetary policy didn’t gain the effect like expectations. For boosting economic growth, controlling the inflation and reducing unemployment, Fed implemented the quantitative easing policy (QE) in November 2008. However, because of QE, the large number of funds released from U.S. flooded into the financial markets or commodity markets with higher return on the investments and caused the turmoil of global markets. This study analyzes how the implement of QE affect the economic data, financial markets and commodity markets. As a result, this study focuses on the period from September 15 2008, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, to December 18 2013, the announcement of slowing QE from the Fed. The results show that QE has the strong effect in the very beginning and decreasing with the number of executions. After QE shrinking, the continuity of effect isn’t obvious. On the other hands, the implement of QE improves economic data but need a long time to show its effects. Furthermore, the implement of QE also causes the U.S. dollar and bond yields fallen and makes other countries face the pressure of currency appreciation and the increase of price in financial markets and commodity markets. Because the global economic doesn’t recover yet, the doubts of asset bubble bring a certain extent of risk on the future economic development.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Finance] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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