北部地區蔬菜農業生產收入之決定因素分析;The Determinant Factor Analysis of Vegetable Production Revenues in Northern Taiwan

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題名:	北部地區蔬菜農業生產收入之決定因素分析;The Determinant Factor Analysis of Vegetable Production Revenues in Northern Taiwan
作者:	傅智麟;Fu,Chi-lin
貢獻者:	產業經濟研究所
關鍵詞:	蔬菜;生產收入;勞力組合;普通最小平方法;vegetable production;production revenue;labor combination;ordinary least square
日期:	2014-07-17
上傳時間:	2014-10-15 15:31:24 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本研究以行政院主計總處2010年度農林漁牧業普查調查資料為基礎，以北部地區(基隆以南、新竹以北)之蔬菜產業農戶普查表填答情形為分析範圍，探討蔬菜種植品項的差異，及其勞力配置、土地利用及栽培方式等因素對農家生產收入影響程度，並採用普通最小平方法(OLS)計量迴歸估計方法進行研究分析，嘗試找出北部地區蔬菜產業作物生產收入影響因素，以做為未來輔導青年農民投入北部地區蔬菜產業時在作物選擇及其生產流程等之規劃方向。依實證結果，北部地區蔬菜產業蘿蔔、竹筍、蕹菜、甘藍、絲瓜及地瓜葉等6種作物栽種面積皆有顯著性的正相關，當面積增加1公頃，生產收益可達2-3倍不等，可見在北部地區擴大農場規模面積是可以增加收益的。蔬菜產業的農戶主要指揮者在北部地區對生產收入的影響並不顯著，可能是北部地區的農戶相較於中南部而言是年輕化的，而且在北部地區資訊較為發達，農戶接受新知的教育水平也比較高。以勞力僱工而言，如果為男性常雇工則顯著正相關，但高麗菜卻有極顯著的負相關，因為高麗菜的栽培模式多以陸地且粗放，及採收所需較粗重男工並不多，因此呈現負相關。就栽培面積對生產收入實證結果之相關性，回應到政府政策「小地主大佃農政策」，如果現行農村老農能將閒置或因生產技術等人為因素生產力較低之土地釋出，交由回鄉之青年農民耕種，相對解決休耕地過多、浪費土地生產力的問題，還可以增加農戶生產收益。 ;This study investigates the determinant factors such as different types of vegetables cultivars, labor allocation, land use and cultivation methods and effect of these factors on the revenues of vegetable production in northern Taiwan (ranging from Hsinchu to Keelung) based on the 2010 census of agriculture conducted by Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics. By using ordinary least square(OLS) methods , we construct a linear regression model to estimate the factors that affect the production revenues for vegetable farmers. Such model can be used as parameters and references for the government to help young farmers in Northern Taiwan when choosing types of crops and improve the process of production. The results show a significant positive correlation between cultivated area and six different crops (carrot, bamboo shoot, water spinach, cabbage, sponge gourd and leafy sweet potato). When the cultivated area increases 1 hectare, the production revenues increase 2-3 times, which means expanding the production scale in Northern Taiwan will increase farmers’ income in Northern Taiwan. There is no statistically significant difference for incomes of managerial roles in Northern Taiwan, this could result from lower average age and higher educational background of farmers in Northern Taiwan, and the convenience of communication and information. For labor allocations, farmers tend to profit more when hiring male employees. However, the results reverse and show a negative correlation in cabbage cultivation. This could stem from the cultivation methods which usually use a more extensive cultivation method with lower input of labor. The positive correlation between production revenues and cultivated area can be traced back the “Small Landlords and Big Tenants Policy.” If old farmers are willing to lease their land which is fallow due to labor shortage or technology inadequacy to young farmers, it will be a good way to solve the problems about excessive fallow land and decrease the waste of productivity. Furthermore, it will increase farmers’ incomes significantly.
顯示於類別:	[產業經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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