高雄捷運通車對區域房價之影響---兼論陸客來台之影響

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Title:	高雄捷運通車對區域房價之影響---兼論陸客來台之影響
Authors:	陳彥羽;Chen,Yen-yu
Contributors:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
Keywords:	高雄房價;高雄捷運;特徵價格法;共線性;陸客;Kaohsiung housing price;Kaohsiung metro;hedonic;Collinearity;Mainland tourists
Date:	2014-07-16
Issue Date:	2014-10-15 15:31:41 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	論文提要本論文旨在驗證2008年3月高雄捷運通車後，對於左營區、楠梓區與鼓山區房價產生之影響，藉此探討交通便利性增加對於各區域房價增長之影響。本文資料時間為六年，研究期間為2005年1月至2011年12月，以高雄市左營區、楠梓區與鼓山區之房價為研究標的。本文先個別分析左營區、楠梓區與鼓山區對於捷運開通房價的影響與物件各別變數對房價的影響；其次，本文再針對左營區、楠梓區與鼓山區做比較，藉以討論捷運開通後具三鐵共構的左營區是否較楠梓區與鼓山區房價有顯著漲幅差異，最後本文加入陸客來台住房人數探討對於房價是否有所影響，並討論捷運開通與陸客來台住房人數是否有共線性影響，若有則做共線性修正。從本文實證結果發現，捷運開通後正向影響房價上漲；而具有三鐵共構的左營區房價是否顯著高於楠梓區與鼓山區，實證結果發現左營區在具有三鐵共構交通特色下，房價相對於楠梓區為負向影響房價外，正向影響房價幅度為16.4%，且比捷運開通帶來的房價漲幅高；而左營區在三鐵共構下，房價同樣高於鼓山區對於房價漲幅僅2.4%(美術館、農十六)，可瞭解具有三鐵共構的左營區相較於區域特色不同的楠梓區與鼓山區更顯著影響房價漲幅。另外，在銷售時間上，捷運開通前一年房價皆呈現顯著下跌，可歸咎於捷運仍在施工，造成周遭環境、生活品質變差，而使房價下跌，而捷運開通後也同樣呈現顯著的下跌，主要原因則因為2008年發生金融海嘯影響房價下跌。本文最後探討陸客來台對於房價的影響，使用來高雄地區陸客住宿人數來當做自變數，經過實證結果得出，僅楠梓區呈現負向顯著影響，而左營區、鼓山區與整體區域陸客住房人數並不顯著影響房價漲幅，且捷運開通與陸客來台之間同樣不存在共線性關係。 ;Summary This paper aims to validate impact in March 2008 after the opening of the Kaohsiung MRT, left for camp, Nanzih area and rates arising Gushan District, in order to investigate the effect of increased traffic convenient price growth for each region. This data period of six years, the study period was from January 2005 to December 2011, in Kaohsiung Zuoying District, Gushan District Nanzih area and rates for the study of the subject. This article first analyzes the individual left the camp, Gushan District Nanzih zone and the opening of the MRT affect the price impact of individual variables and objects on the price; Secondly, we then left for the camp, Nanzih area compared with Gushan District, in order to discuss the Czech Republic Are shipped after opening with a three-iron left of the camp structure has significant differences compared Nanzih gains and prices Gushan District, Finally, the number of mainland tourists to Taiwan to join the housing investigate whether the prices have an impact, and discuss the MRT opened with mainland tourists the number of housing units to whether there were linear effects of co-linearity correction if you do. From the empirical results found that the positive effects of the opening of the MRT housing prices; while prices have left the camp of the three iron structures are significantly higher than Nanzih area and Gushan District, empirical results show that left the camp with a three iron in the total structure under the traffic characteristics, relative prices is negative Nanzih affect the price, the positive influence prices magnitude of 16.4%, and the ratio of house prices to bring the MRT opened higher; while the left camp in a total of three iron structure, same prices Gushan District for higher prices rose only 2.4% (Art Museum, Nong 16), can understand the structure with a three-iron left of the camp compared to the regional characteristics of different areas and Gushan District Nanzih more significant impact on housing prices. In addition, the sale of time, a year before the opening of the MRT are showing a significant decline in prices can be attributed to the MRT still under construction, causing the surrounding environment, quality of life deteriorates, leaving prices fell, while the opening of the MRT is also presented a significant decline, mainly because of the impact of the financial tsunami in 2008 prices fell. Finally, explore the mainland tourists to Taiwan for the price impact of the use of the number of mainland tourists to Kaohsiung area to stay as independent variables, the empirical results obtained after only Nanzih area showed a significant negative impact, while the left camp, Gushan District and the whole region the number of mainland tourists do not significantly affect housing prices rose, and the absence of the same linear relationship between Taiwan and mainland tourists MRT opened.
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