在專案開發過程，變更的發生是不可避免的，而且可能發生在專案的任何一個階段。當專案其中一個因素發生變更，將造成至少一個其他因素產生相應的變化，若是缺乏妥善的協調與權衡，將可能對專案品質造成負面影響。然而，目前研究對專案變更的權衡議題多專注於時間和成本的取捨，較少有整體性的綜合評估。如何對專案變更可能造成的影響進行整體性評估，便為一個重要課題，也是本研究欲解決的目標。 因此，本研究嘗試以專案管理鐵三角理論為基礎，建立一個專案變更影響分析的量化模型，以工期、價格、工作範圍作為模型的主要構面，組成一個視覺化三軸模型。利用組織的歷史專案數據進行分析模型的訓練，並配合欲評估之專案的活動清單與執行現況，協助專案相關人員在變更發生時，能以品質不變為目標，進行專案整體影響程度的相關評估與協商。本研究將以Web-based方式實作所提出之模型，利用電子化系統輔助繁複的量化運算，提升模型運用的效率；同時使用者亦可透過網頁系統，便利地操作視覺化模型以進行相關評估。透過本研究所提出之模型，當專案在任何階段發生變更時，無論是專案執行前或專案進行中，專案關鍵人員都能利用模型進行整體性的專案變更影響評估。;Change is inevitable during project development and could be discovered throughout the project’s life cycle. When change in project factor occurs, at least one other factor is likely to be affected. The project stakeholders must be able to balance the influence of each factor in order to achieve a successful project. However, the studies on the trade-off of project change mostly focus on crashing issues. How to make a comprehensive analysis for project change is the subject of this paper. In this study, a quantitative analysis model which is based on Iron-Triangle of Project Management is developed. The model consists of three dimensions: time, price, and scope. The training of the model is performed upon the historical project data of the project team. The context of project activities is also considered in the model. Once the project change occurs, stakeholders could analyze and negotiate for the change impact in order to maintain the quality of the project. The model proposed in this study would be implemented via web-based system, and is expected to assist project stakeholders in assessing the change impact in any phase of project’s life cycle.
